SFisHomeBlog

SFisHOME re-launches it's blog

2010-03-23T12:42:00.000-07:00

SFisHOME's new blog is blog.SFisHOME.com

We launch with 4 video walk thru's of 3190 Scott Street - Luxury Cow Hollow Condos

Lots of detail and video's - including this duplicate video - so watch it here - or view all 4 plus price sheets at blog.SFisHOME.com

#307 asking $1,049,000 - this with a south facing exclusive or deeded patio:

Ingelside hot, 32 Josiah not

2010-03-22T09:13:00.000-07:00

Ingelside - south of Geneva Ave, west of San Jose Ave. An area that I confess I don't get to much, but went to 32 Josiah at the request of a client.

32 Josiah is a Banked owned REO asking only $302,000. Here's a walk thru of this 1 bedroom Single Family Home.

Rough shape, aye? Meanwhile in 2004 it couldn't sell at $450,000, but later that year when they dropped it to $399,000 it sold for $509,000. Ouch. An unfortunate over-bid story for someone.

Now at $302,000 representing a 40% drop if it sells at that price... and indeed it's apparently gone in and out of contract 3 times. Unfortunately to me that means serious flaws are probably being found during inspections, so it could sell for less.

Meanwhile Ingelide only has 6 Single Family homes with 2 or fewer bedrooms and 1 bathroom that have sold in the past 6 months.... only 1 per month, however, there are 8 homes currently in contract. That's smoking hot. 5 are listed for sale including 32 Josiah.

Things that make you go "hmmmm". 215 Moulton

2010-03-21T08:42:00.000-07:00

215 Moulton St. Back on the market. But not "BOM".

Purusing new listings in Cow Hollow I came across 215 Moulton after having just seen it weeks ago. Naturally I assumed it meant it had expired or been withdrawn unsold. But actually, it did sell with a Close of Escrow on February 26th.

Not even 30 days later it's back on the market asking $59,000 more than it sold for last month. Definitely not a flip since that amount would not cover all costs of a purchase and sale. Someone had a change of heart. Hmmm.... wonder what the scoop is here?

Ahh - I just read all of the marketing remarks - this is the last sentence "On the market again due to job transfer."

3190 Scott St (um, Lombard) hits the market

2010-03-20T19:41:00.000-07:00

3190 Scott St hits the market in San Francisco Cow Hollow district.

Note the entrance just a few steps from Lombard

3190 Scott is a 12 unit building, and so far 2 units are on the MLS, but you can bet all 12 are for-sale. I'll get a price sheet on Tuesday Tour.

3190 Scott St reminds me of 3208 Pierce pictured here:

Back in mid 2007 when 3208 Pierce was selling I thought 3208 Pierce was way over priced, but to my surprise it sold quickly. They were small for the money, many of the tiny balconies were facing Lombard making them virtually unusable. And even the main living quarters in many units were right on Lombard. Despite extra thick glass, you could definitely hear Lombard traffic quite well as I recall.

Looks like commercial space at the base of the building

3190 Scott is the same Vanguard agent as 3208 Pierce. No idea about the builder, but until I see it on Tuesday morning I'm expecting more of the same... except the price already appears a bit lower than 2007 as you would expect.

School lottery out - new rules in

2010-03-19T12:00:00.000-07:00

San Francisco School assignments will be changing beginning Fall 2011 per the San Francisco Unified School District (SFUSD) Board of Education
More at the SFUSD here

Here's the current assignment criteria
• Extreme Poverty
• Socioeconomic Status
• English Proficiency
• Academic Performance Rank of Sending School
• Academic Achievement Status
Full details of the above here.

Here's the new version
Elementary schools
1. Siblings already attending the school.
2. SFUSD PreK - students who live in the attendance area of the school and are also
attending an SFUSD PreK program in the same attendance area.
3. CTIP1-students who reside in CTIP1 census tracts.
4. Attendance Area - students who live in the attendance area of the school.
5. Densely populated attendance areas - students who live in attendance areas that do not have sufficient capacity to accommodate all the students living in the attendance area.
6. All other students.

Middle Schools are somewhat similar to Elementary, but right now High Schools don't have any of the same "attendance area" language, but they say "they'll try" after the other criteria.

Overall this looks like quite a dramatic change... although I'd like to hear more about what a "CTIP1-student" is and how you get into an "attendance area" SFUSD Pre-K since that's how it all starts.... speaking as the father of a 1 year old :)

Why so much Short Sale info on this San Francisco blog?

2010-03-19T09:47:00.001-07:00

Why are we talking about Short Sales so much on this San Francisco Real Estate blog?

Short Sales appear to be more advantageous to just about everyone involved vs. Foreclosure. We've got a top 10 reasons on our web site, but here are a couple of main reasons we ALL should care about:

1. Short Sales tend to be better for your neighbors:
* in a Condo building the sooner you can get a HOA dues paying member in, the better for everyone. Yes Short Sales take a long time, but have you read my "Shadow Inventory" article yet? And did you know you can do a Short Sale without making one late payment (a new rule at many banks like BofA). A great idea if you want to protect your credit as much as possible.
* in Foreclosure junior liens are wiped out. I've heard varying opinions on this, but my understanding is the REO lender does not need to make up for the foreclosed owner's missed payments.
* just about anything can be negotiated in a Short Sale, including getting the new buyer or the lender to pay for some or all of the missed HOA payments.
* in Single Family homes you avoid empty homes that could attract crime and vandalism

2. Short Sales protect values FAR better than Foreclosures.
* per the BofA Portfolio Manager, Short Sales net the bank 12% to 20% more on average than Foreclosures. This is due almost entirely to what a Short Sale sells for vs. a Foreclosure. Part of the value difference are the damage often caused by out going home owners or by vandals to vacant homes.

There are many advantages for the Owner/Seller... the above two talk about advantages to the rest of San Francisco home owners. We ought to encourage Short Sales over Foreclosures when ever it makes sense.

More Short Sale info here:
Short Sale FAQ
Short Sale Advantages
Side by Side comparison Short Sale vs. Foreclosure

Bank of America's Short Sale Department

2010-03-19T09:29:00.000-07:00

At a luncheon yesterday one of the quest speakers was Bank of America's Allen Seelenbinder, V.P. Portfolio Retention Manager of the Western U.S. A few interesting facts:

Bank of America beefed up their Short Sale department over the past 6 months from 100 employees to 1,400. And now instead of over 300 Short Sale files their "negotiators" are averaging 100 or fewer files.

BofA is also one of the banks using Equator.com - a third party processing system where home owners or their authorized agents can begin a Short Sale file. The big win here is that you can avoid faxing in hundreds of pages to get a short sale started. I believe he said in one month last year they received 10,000 faxed sheets of paper. Now 85% of their files are on Equator and he claims files and information no longer get lost (oh but for those pesky data entry problems I'm sure).

Finally, while he wouldn't say how long a Short Sale approval took before Equator and the employee ramp up, he says their goal is 90 days and they are currently averaging 101 days. Dramatic improvements since Oct '09.

Bankruptcy problems for homeowners in distress

2010-03-19T09:04:00.000-07:00

At a luncheon seminar yesterday, even the guest speaker Attorney didn't want to touch the bankruptcy question since he didn't specialize in the area. So I can't and won't even provide an opinion on whether bankruptcy is an option for you if you're home is under water and you can't afford to keep up with payments. However, if in that situation, you ought to consult with a bankruptcy attorney to find out if it could provide any relief.

Unfortunately, per this New York Times op-ed piece from a Professor of Law at Columbia, it doesn't sound like there is much bankruptcy can do since 2005 when Congress changes bankruptcy rules.

This from the professor "the reforms created a system that makes it harder to file for Chapter 7 while doing nothing to make Chapter 13, once the savior of homeowners, useful in this sort of mortgage crisis."

He also says there's been a significant increase in paper work making it a "lawyer- and paperwork-centered system" which costs filing homeowners much more than before.

Still, the additional fees the Op-Ed talks about are less than $1500. In San Francisco with our high cost real estate market, that may be chump change for those facing larger than normal financial issues so a call to a bankruptcy attorney is warranted if you're considering a Short Sale or strategic default foreclosure.

Photo Phriday

2010-03-19T08:22:00.000-07:00

Bay Bridge and Night Heron, originally uploaded by bstorage.

Short Sales in California - Schwarzenegger's take

2010-03-18T08:36:00.000-07:00

Schwarzenegger says "I'll be back", or rather that the Legislature needs to bring back a new bill that extends Debt forgiveness on Short Sales. As one article put it "foreclosure city" if Californians are made to pay taxes on "phantom income". The Fed has the 2007 Mortgage Debt Relief Act which is good through 2012, so you're good on your Federal taxes if you qualify. But currently some CPA's are recommending people who sold "short" should file an extension on April 15th and hope that Schwarzenegger and the Legislature get it together before the final October deadline when you have to file.

Here's the paragraph from the Schwarzenegger press release letter:
I asked you to send me legislation that protects homeowners from being taxed on “short sales” when they are forced to sell their home for less than they owe on their mortgage. Instead you are sending me a bill that uses these homeowners as leverage to increase tax penalties for businesses. Send me a clean bill that protects homeowners from this tax immediately, and I will sign it.

Apparently the provision Schwarzenegger so detests is one where companies or individuals who file for refunds fraudulently would be penalized if discovered. Gee, sounds onerous. Thanks Governator for holding up a much needed law because an included law irks you.

Also in the press release is his request for an extension of the $10,000 new home tax credit. His belief is new housing should be built which puts construction workers back to work. I don't know much about the rest of the State's real estate markets, but I don't see how California really needs more new homes when so many sit empty due to foreclosure. But California government completely lost at sea.... what else is new?

San Francisco BMR units

2010-03-18T07:57:00.000-07:00

How is the San Francisco BMR market doing?

"Below Market Rate" or BMR from the San Francisco Mayor's Office of Housing (MOH) program seemed like a great program circa 2004 and 2005 when the San Francisco real estate market was climbing to the sky and many who wanted in couldn't afford to buy.

Today? Not so much. In '04 and '05 a BMR would be advertised for a couple of weeks, they'd then collect the offers, all of which were essentially the same exact offer since you were not allowed to pay more for it. And then hold a lottery to select which offer won. But today? I count 17 BMR's listed on the San Francisco MLS with an average Days on Market (DOM) of 81 with 6 over 100 days and a 7th closing in on 1 year on the MLS.

In the past 3 months only 5 BMR's have sold with average DOM of 85 days. So less than 2 are selling per month with 17 on the market.... that's about 10 months worth of inventory. Shockingly slow absorbtion.

Meanwhile, the Avg price per SqFt for the BMR's are around $400 to $425. Not exactly deals anymore, especially in neighborhoods like SOMA, Diamond Heights and Bayview where so many of these are located.

Meanwhile, average price per SqFt at a building like the Beacon, 250 King and 260 King, for 1 BR condos that have sold in the past 6 months is about $488. Why buy a priced fixed unit when for just a little bit more you can get market rate?

Update on 210 Mallorca - 5 offers?

2010-03-18T06:47:00.000-07:00

On March 5th we called 210 Mallorca the "deal of the week". Word on the street is that we weren't the only ones to notice. Apparently there were 5 offers, 3 over asking. "Word on the street" aka rumors, are often wrong, so we'll report when the facts are in. But I'm not surprised. Clients ask for "deals" all of the time, but when something looks like a deals in a well covered part of town like the Marina, they quickly get bid up until they no longer are deals.

First San Francisco Neighborhood Stabilization Program sale?

2010-03-17T09:00:00.000-07:00

260 King #543 - first San Francisco NSP listing?

NSP or Neighborhood Stabilization Program "was established for the purpose of stabilizing communities that have suffered from foreclosures and abandonment. State and local governments can buy, fix up and re-sell foreclosed homes." per HUD.gov.

This is big news in other locales when the first NSP homes hit the market. Meanwhile, you'd think San Francisco would be last on the list for stablization money since our market came down well after most others. Yet 260 King #543 at The Beacon and on the MLS for 9 days has information in the "agent-only" remarks indicating that it is an NSP Condo.

This March 15th Fresno Bee article does a good job of describing this HUD program is working there.

HUD.gov provides this link - also provided by the 260 King listing. Per that link

NSP1
Under NSP1, HUD allocated $3.92 billion on a formula basis to 309 grantees including 55 states and territories and 254 selected local governments. The program was designed to stabilize communities across America hardest hit by foreclosures. Grant agreements for these funds have already been signed.

NSP2
Under NSP2, HUD allocated $1.93 billion on a competitive basis to states, local governments, and non profit organizations. The program objectives and eligible uses did not change under the Recovery Act, but the allocation process and some regulations on the funds have changed.

So how did San Francisco get HUD money? I thought I read something about San Francisco getting some stimulus money, but countless google searches later I'm stumped. But given the article below about a Beacon condo with a 40% drop in value, they've certainly picked the right building to try to stabilize.

Beacon Short Sale: 250 King St #450

2010-03-17T08:55:00.000-07:00

A Short Sale at The Beacon: 250 King St #450

photo courtesy of socketsite.com (and I just noticed from a post referencing this unit when it first hit the market in oct '09)

40% drop in value if the sale goes through at the last list price of $360,000. 2006 purchase price was $599,000 according to tax records. That's some rough stuff for the struggling Beacon.

800 SqFt 1 bedroom Condo - leased parking and $550 HOA dues, but still, $360,000 looks like a BMR. In fact I came across 250 King St #450 when researching BMR's (San Francisco "Below Market Rate" Mayor's Office of Housing program). Unforunately among many terrible marketing mistakes on this particular listing, one is that the agent checked the "BMR" box in the MLS when it appears NOT to be a Below Market Rate unit.

Which leads me to my next post (above when it's ready) is how the BMR market is doing in San Francisco? Hint, not well.

Out from the Shadows: an REO hits the market

2010-03-17T07:27:00.000-07:00

1817 California #2E was in the "shadows" for over a year.

Per tax records 1817 California St #2E received a Notice of Default in February 2008 and a Notice of Trustee's sale in May 2008. But not until September 2008 did it get recorded as a Foreclosure. Whether one counts the NOD or the NOT or the REO as "shadow inventory", it's still a long, long time from yesterday when #2E hit the San Francisco MLS. There was an attempt to sell as a Short Sale leading up to the REO recording. That was for $498,000 so we'll see if the new price of $454,900 makes a difference.

The last MLS sale was 2005 when it sold for $650,000. It's a 2 bedroom 1.5 bath and per tax records only 787 SqFt. The 2005 listing claimed it was 1,000 SqFt. That's a huge issue for 2BR's. Under 800 SqFt would feel tiny whereas 1,000 SqFt would be acceptable.

But the kicker here is that a bank held onto this puppy for over a year. And THAT is why some fear shadow inventory. What took them so long, and do they have a lot more of them?????

TIC now a rental: 2831-33 Webster St #4

2010-03-16T13:10:00.000-07:00

2831-33 Webster St #4 is a TIC in a 6 unit building on a prime Pac Heights/Cow Hollow block.

This 3 bedroom 1 bath sold for $820,000 in 2007 - arguably the San Francisco market peak. Prior to that the entire building sold in 2004 for $2,370,000. That buyer did great because they sold 4 of the 6 units for $2,449,000.

Unfortunately unit #4's more recent 2007 buyer didn't do so well. Starting a year ago they tried selling at $895,000, and withdrawn and listed 2 more times with the last failed attempt to sell at $799,000. Now on Craigslist asking $4,000 and from what I know of the rental market, that may be $500 over priced.

Then again, it's got Golden Gate Bridge views and a deck... and just a 1/2 block from Union Street it just might attract a $4,000 renter. On the other hand the NYTimes Rent vs Buy calculator says it's better to buy at $800,000 vs. $4,000 in rent. So the problem here is it's a TIC, and TIC's are definitely not selling well vs. Condos in San Francisco right now.

SOMA Grand - only 3 condos remain

2010-03-15T09:44:00.000-07:00

1160 Mission, aka SOMA Grand, update:

This is the opening line from a SOMA Grand email I got over the weekend
"With just three homes remaining, your opportunity to purchase in San Francisco’s best valued high-rise is almost gone!"

So wait a second!?!?!?!? Do you mean to tell me there will never be a re-sale of a SOMA Grand condo???

Duh, of course there will. So to anyone who cares to listen, wait until the "new car smell" is gone and buy a "used" condo for 10% less. Or who knows, maybe 20% or 30% less depending on the market and the deal the original owner got or didn't get.

An Attorney want to tackle this one?

2010-03-15T08:13:00.000-07:00

Creating a spread between what appears to be a "straw" buyer and the eventual "real" buyer on a Short Sale - can this possibly be legal?

We thought this was a behind the scenes scenario we were hearing about... but the 12th comment down on this post on ActiveRain is from someone admitting their entire company is based on this sly maneuver.

These two comments are quite telling:
"We prefer that you give us a call as soon as you get the listing and not communicate with the bank(s) first. For us to be affective at what we do, we need your full cooperation."

In other words, don't YOU tell the bank what we're doing, we've got some way of telling them that gets this through. Legal or not, I don't know. I do know it would be illegal if the HUD doesn't clearly spell out how the double closing works and that the bank isn't getting as much money if they were to sell direct to the end user.

"We also let the listing agent keep the listing and re-list the property for us to resale to someone looking for a good deal on a short sale through our negotiation process."

Cool, for me to participate in what might be illegal behavior I'm enticed with two commissions. I think that's why Willy Loman liked to rob banks with more money in them. Better pay for that crime... that doesn't pay.

New listing: 1BR Marina Condo

2010-03-12T11:52:00.000-08:00

Marina District Condo across from both Fort Mason and Moscone Rec Park. Click below or visit www.3501Laguna.com.

Open Sunday 2-4pm

Photo Phriday

2010-03-12T08:17:00.000-08:00

Streetcar and Ferry Building, originally uploaded by bstorage.

3020 Laguna now for-rent AND to be demolished

2010-03-11T17:08:00.000-08:00

Only in San Francisco - 3020 Laguna St, a recently sold Single Family Home in Cow Hollow has a Craigslist ad that says "The House Will Be Demolished In A Year To 18 Months. When Owner Has His New Construction Permits."

Further the ad says "Antiquated Pre-1900 Construction 1-3 Bedroom House 1 1/2 Blocks From Union Street. The House Is Not Glamourous Or Contemporary In Any Way."

Yeah, no kidding. Check out my video walk through from 3 months ago.

Hey, but they're only asking $3,200 per month. More than a little over priced in my opinion.

Photo Phriday

2010-03-05T08:11:00.000-08:00

San Francisco from Conzelman Road, originally uploaded by bstorage.

San Francisco from Conzelman Road

Deal of the week: 210 Mallorca St, San Francisco

2010-03-05T07:43:00.000-08:00

We've gotten a little depressing lately with tons of foreclosure and short sale news. Well, how about a really well priced property that looks like a deal to us?
210 Mallorca St in San Francisco's Marina District is this week's Deal of the Week.

Asking $1,495,000 for a 2-unit building with an illegal 3rd unit on the garage/garden level. The lower unit is currently rented for $2,600 per month, and if you wanted it for an investment the upper unit should easily rent for $3,000 and the illegal unit for $1,200 or so.

As a flip, you could sell the two units as TIC's and with 2 owner occupiers the building would bypass the lottery and have the ability to convert to condos in about 2 years. Valuing the property this way is where the "deal" comes in. An upper flat in a 2-unit building in the Marina that is approximately 1,400 SqFt could sell for $900,000. The lower flat should easily get $800,000.

Values are subjective, and the issues with this building is that each unit needs upgrading, and the garage is a 2-car tandem garage. There was one recent comparable property at $1,470,000 which would seem to indicate 210 Mallorca is priced right. But that was a probate sale that required Court confirmation, and appeared (to our non-professional eyes) to be more of a fixer than 210 appears to be.

If interested in seeing 210 Mallorca contact your agent, or if you don't have an agent we'd love to show it to you.

3 tips for delaying foreclosure

2010-03-05T07:30:00.000-08:00

Need more time to get that Short Sale to go through? Or to come up with the money to get current on your loan? 3 tips for delaying foreclosure video:

The "Ask for the note" strategy is being billed by some as a way to prove the lender doesn't even own your home. As always, if it sounds too good to be true, it is. If you wonder out loud "why isn't everyone doing this" it's probably because it isn't true and doesn't work.

Also, "remind the bank" that they lose 30% more in a foreclosure vs. a Short sale is dumb. This is one EVERYONE does ALL OF THE TIME. If you say it too, they'll probably hold the phone 3 feet from their ear and not bother to listen to what you really need to talk about.

Finally, these are delaying tactics. They won't stop foreclosure.

One tip from us.... print out your credit reports and scores NOW when your credit is still good. You'll be able to prove to future landlords, employers and others that you were a good credit risk until you got caught up in a bad investment. www.AnnualCreditReport.com is the government's site. Don't use the ones advertised on TV unless you want to be sold a bill of goods and spammed relentlessly.

Another Watermark Penthouse REO

2010-03-04T09:15:00.000-08:00

The sky is falling - or sky high "Penthouse" condo prices at 501 Beale St, San Francisco's "Watermark".

Time to grab my video camera for another Watermark Penthouse walk thru. 501 Beale St has yet another REO (banked owned foreclosure) Penthouse - this time #PH-1E, and this time asking $1,224,000. As you may recall #PH-1B was "only" asking $893,475 a little over a month ago. That just closed Escrow for about that price.

The trouble with these "penthouses" is they aren't even the top floor. #2E and #2B are above #1E and #1B. Notice just on the video's first frame the upper balcony (probably #PH-2E's) - your neighbor in the "real" penthouse sits on top of you. Despite that, according to tax records #PH-1E sold for $1,523,000 in 2007.

On the other hand, #PH-1E is clearly superior to #PH-1B because it is a corner unit and it's about 350 SqFt larger - at least according to tax records. But I'm still not buying the $1.224M price. A 30% drop from 2007 would be a $1,066,000 price today, and that's much more like it.

Beacon REO: 250 King St #810

2010-03-04T08:50:00.000-08:00

250 King St #810, The Beacon, a banked own "REO" San Francisco condo with a past due offer date. What happened?

Per the San Francisco MLS "All offers due 2/25/10 @ 5pm". Yet the condo is still "Active" on the MLS a week later. I noticed it because even for The Beacon it looks like a "deal".

In 2006 it sold for $675,000 - this for a 1 bed, 1 bath with 822 SqFt. I called that "north end of town pricing" and told my clients when I could not make sense of values. But now? At $408,900 I would have at least expected someone to put in a low bid. So either we have "offer deadline-itis" where everyone stays away because they don't want to compete for fear of over-paying or simply wasting time. Or we have an out of town Listing Agent without direct access to the MLS who can't or won't get the status changed a week after accepting an offer.

But if you're in the market for a 1 Bedroom near AT&T Park, let me know and we'll give them an offer appropriate for a failed offer deadline.

1310 Fillmore St #802 - delayed Foreclosure?

2010-03-02T12:23:00.000-08:00

1310 Fillmore St #802 had a scheduled Foreclosure Auction date of February 20th.

That date has come and gone and yet it is still on the San Francisco MLS listed as a Short Sale. Currently asking $665,000 per tax records it has a loan of $762,468. And per the San Francisco property tax payment site the "Net Taxable Value" of 1310 Fillmore #802 is $993,953. That's a drop of 33% in just over 2 years.

Pacific Heights Foreclosure Auction: 224 Presidio Ave

2010-03-02T09:33:00.000-08:00

224 Presidio Avenue in Pacific Heights had a scheduled for Foreclosure Auction date of February 19th.

Unlike yesterday's story about 3157 Baker, 224 Presidio is not on the San Francisco MLS, so presumably it sold at Auction. The rest of the story is otherwise very similar. There was a mortgage a year in '04, '05 and '06. It's impossible to tell from tax records, but it looks like a $2.25 million first loan from 2005 and a $250,000 2nd from 2006. The judgement amount was $2.4 million.

Like 3157 Baker it went onto the market at well over $1,000 per SqFt right around the time the financial crisis became national news. Pulled 3 weeks later they re-listed it in January '09 at the same $3,995,000 price but then reduced by $345,000 3 months later, and withdrawn 4 months after that in August '09... and the default date was one month later.

Like 3157 Baker it appears 224 Presidio either has no yard, or a very small one. And while it's Presidio Ave location is a lot quieter than Richarson Ave, it's not exactly the most sought after Pacific Heights location. And like 3157 Baker I'd put the fair market value closer to it's default amount than it's attempted 2008 sale price.

The bottom line.... another "District 7" luxury San Francisco foreclosure.

Marina District Foreclosure Auction: 3157 Baker St

2010-03-01T13:29:00.000-08:00

3157 Baker Street in San Francisco's Marina District had a scheduled for Foreclosure Auction on February 18th. Obviously that didn't happen because it is currently listed For-Sale on the San Francisco MLS.

Built in 2007 it had a recorded mortgage of $2,283,000 on April 23, 2007. Tax records show a default date of July 13th 2009.

It was listed for-sale in September 2008 for $5 million. That was probably an unrealistic number even before the financial crisis became national news later that month. It expired that December, and was just re-listed 3 weeks ago by what appears to be the owner of the property. This time at $3,695,000.

The home is 4,000 SqFt, but has no yard. It's also on Richardson - otherwise known as highway 101 - a very loud location nearly 24/7 but especially during rush hour.

In District 7 - Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, Presidio Heights and the Marina - 5 single family homes have sold since the beginning of the year between $2 million and $5 million. 5 are in contract, and 15 are for-sale. That's a reasonable 6 months of inventory, but over $1,000 per SqFt seems severely over priced. I can't see a family spending over $3 million for a home with no yard and on a street you'd rather not have them crossing very often. And interestingly enough "Former residence to celebrity chef, CEOs, professional athletes". But how many wealthy, single or no-kid pro athletes are there - I hear Tim Lincecum lives in the Marina, but I doubt he wants to spend some of his $23 million on a 4,000 SqFt house on a busy street.

With a loan under $2.3 million, I'd try to get closer to the $2.6 million that 2312 Gough St is asking and walk away with at least a little cash - otherwise I think foreclosure will steal 100% of the equity.

Bay Area prices - 2007 to 2009

2010-02-26T12:17:00.000-08:00

San Francisco Bay Area real estate prices - from the 2007 peak through 2009

This chart from Dana Kuntz of Pacific Union

The article referred to in his notes is here.

San Francisco dropped the least, but 20% is significant.

Socketsite uses Case-Shiller data which doesn't include Napa and Sonoma, and does include San Mateo which is not in the above chart. That 5 county chart shows the Bay Area down 27%. But what is most interesting in the SocketSite post is the 3rd chart down - here is that SocketSite chart:

Notice that San Francisco did not rise as much as Los Angeles and New York. I'm quite sure the City of San Francisco didn't rise as much as Contra Costa and the other counties either. This is important because the bigger you are.... or the higher they rose, the farther they will fall. So don't expect City of San Francisco prices to drop any where near as far as other Bay Area counties. That said, you probably can expect certain parts of San Francisco to fall quite far - like SOMA/South Beach which were severely over priced.

Photo Phriday

2010-02-26T09:05:00.000-08:00

Golden Gate From South Tower, originally uploaded by bstorage.

New SFisHOME Blog feature - Photo Phriday. This bridge never gets old.

Cheapest Marina home Closes Escrow

2010-02-26T08:21:00.000-08:00

On January 10th we described 1456 Chestnut as being the "cheapest Single Family home in the Marina" since 1999. Asking only $709,000 it had what appeared to be severe foundation problems. Well, it Closed escrow 3 weeks ago (slipped through the cracks my tipsters) for $870,000. Not surprisingly the financing terms say "cash". At that price it makes it the cheapest since, well, 1999 and 2000. There was 2002 sale on Lombard at $850,000, but that's hardly a comparable location.

"Owner May Carry"

2010-02-25T14:38:00.000-08:00

"Owner May Carry" 1st mortgage. Yup, SOMA/South Beach has come to that.

355 1st St #2101 is back on the market after not selling in 2009 (Feb to May). First they tried a price drop of $100,000 down to it's current asking price of $1,298,000. And possibly right from the start, but it's impossible to tell, they offered 3.5% to the "cooperating broker" or whatever agent represented the Buyer. Neither strategy worked.

Back on the market 7 days ago 355 1st St #2101 is once again asking $1,298,000 and this time the "check boxes" I referred to in my earlier post was used for "OMC 1st" or "owner may carry a first mortgage". Unfortunately for us that 3.5% cooperating broker commission is down to a normal 2.5%, but let us know if you want to negotiate some sweet financing.

Here's an idea... pay their price... but get a zero percent loan ;-)

By the way, there are 10 other "owner may carry" For-sale properties in the San Francisco MLS right now. Will we see this trend grow????

Bad marketing

2010-02-25T14:04:00.001-08:00

Trying to set up a lockbox tour - meaning the condo has a Realtor lockbox on it, and with my key I can go with my clients 24/7.
The San Francisco MLS allows Realtors to do advanced searches - like checking "lockbox" or "Go Directly". Here's one agent's showing instruction checklist "Go Directly, Appointment Only, Call Listing Agent, Call Listing Office, 24-Hours Notice"

Gee thanks. That's almost as good as the photo of a different unit.

It also speaks to why you can't trust the numbers - I regularly run Short Sale and Foreclosure searches. And I regularly send Open House emails to clients. All of the above require the Seller's Agent to check the appropriate box when setting up the new Listing. Unfortunately some agents just don't care much for details, or their fellow agent's time, or apparently to sell the home they were hired to sell.

$545,000 Price..... er, reduction

2010-02-23T06:21:00.000-08:00

$545,000 isn't the price of this home, it's the price reduction.

28 Presidio Terrace, San Francisco, came onto the market in January at $5,395,000. As of yesterday it was reduced to $4,850,000 for a $545,000 price drop.

A private priced sale in March 2007, extrapolating from tax records it looks like a purchase price of approximately $4.96 million. So it will be interesting to compare a "peak year" purchase to today when this sells. We'll see a $545,000 price reduction does it or not.

Rents dropping like a rock in San Francisco

2010-02-22T12:52:00.000-08:00

A Property Manager at a major San Francisco company is telling me Rents are dropping like a rock in San Francisco.

In his words "everybody that rents an apartment here is asking for a rent reduction. That is almost all I do all day is process rent reductions." And "some of these people signed leases a year ago and they were paying say $2,400.00 and now the current rents in the area are $1,900.00 sometimes even in the same building"

He went on to say "One woman they said 'no' to, actually rented the new apartment for the lower price and moved upstairs for $500.00 per month less. Well that cost them money to refurbish it and so now it is 'yes yes and yes'."

The above is in reference to residential rentals. Regarding commercial he said "Even commercial that I manage are asking for 50%, yes 50% rent reductions over in the sunset and they are getting them."

Back in January I found 13 residential rentals signs within 3 blocks. So I stopped into one of them on Chestnut Street over the weekend. The rental agent told me she had been trying to rent the unit for over 2 months and the landlord was refusing to budge on the rent. She figured it was $300 over priced.

Meanwhile a rental agent in my office told me normally they have about 15 rentals, but now they have 400. She claimed rents had NOT gone down, only that instead of taking 2 to 3 days to rent a place it was taking 30 to 60 days. Per the above, I'm guessing they'll be singing a new tune the next time I ask.

Tough times at The Palms, 555 4th St, San Francisco

2010-02-19T10:25:00.001-08:00

Tough times at The Palms, 555 4th St, San Francisco

The Palms really doesn't need any more problems. $800,000 and over 2BR condos from 2006 are now selling for $600,000 and under, and Short sales and REO's rule the day. But per the Q&A at Trulia today there are or were several loan issues:

1. they apparently had a pooled insurance policy - now supposedly corrected. I happen to be showing a Palms unit today to a client, so if she's interested I'll get more details on this.

2. delinquent HOA dues had been 15% - now supposedly corrected, this is also a lender guideline where 15% is the threshold.

3. owner occupancy "quite low" per one comment. My understanding is that FHA requires 50% owner occupancy and conventional loans require 51%. If The Palms is lower than 51% that would be pretty shocking news.

My concern here is #2 and #3. It may be a struggle to contain both as short sales and foreclosures continue. Then again, hopefully the new buyers in the building snapping up the $600,000 2BR's are owner-occupiers like my client will be if she likes the building and unit after our visit today.

Luxury Market stats in "D7" - north end of SF

2010-02-19T08:54:00.000-08:00

Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, the Marina, Presidio Heights $2M to $3M market.
A quick look at the past 6 months as compared to the same time period in each of the prior 6 years. This is the $2 million to $3 million Single Family home market in Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, the Marina & Cow Hollow. With all sales btwn $2M and $3M most of the average and medians for these time periods were right around $2.5 million so I'll focus on price per SqFt, and the size of home you can get for that price, and number of sales:

'03-'04 - 25 sales, $713 per SqFt, 3,586 Avg SqFt
'04-'05 - 25 sales, $793 per SqFt, 3,140 Avg SqFt
'05-'06 - 14 sales, $1,026 per SqFt, 2,634 Avg SqFt
'06-'07 - 20 sales, $847 per SqFt, 2,937 Avg SqFt
'07-'08 - 9 sales, $918 per SqFt, 2,793 Avg SqFt
'08-'09 - 8 sales, $901 per SqFt, 2,806 Avg SqFt
'09-present - 14 sales, $802 SqFt, 3,290 Avg SqFt

Oh so many caveats here. For one I had to take out the Bourn Mansion sale - 2550 Webster was an extreme fixer that had 9762 SqFt for "only" $2.79M. Of course that buyer is going to put in MILLIONS of dollars to restore it and it seriously skewed the price per SqFt and the average SqFt.

Secondly, this price range and area is notorious for private non-MLS Sales (and this is all San Francisco MLS data) and for "undisclosed" prices.

Still, the above is general guidance. Prices are back to the late '04 early '05 levels with Sellers becoming more realistic and total sales improving over the past 2 years' results. But sales are up, and the anecdotal evidence from agents in my office is that there is a LOT of off-MLS sales happening right now. Sellers and Buyers are cutting deals. This is one of those times I think it's a good time to be a Buyer or a Seller. Well, Sellers might not think that because prices are way down from peak, but if you want to sell, there is definitely demand right now. And if you want to buy, you should find it easier to negotiate a deal rather than finding nothing but unrealistic and totally inflexible sellers.

Well, maybe they still aren't
<------ this flexible.

2010 "the year of the short sale"

2010-02-18T14:16:00.000-08:00

Jim Klinge or "Jim the Realtor" in San Diego is one of my favorite real estate bloggers at www.bubbleinfo.com. In this Financial Times article he says ".... 2010 will be the year of the short sale".

The article goes on to say that "Wells Fargo is holding seminars to teach real-estate brokers how to conduct short sales. Citigroup created a unit to expedite short sales..." and "BofA has hired additional staff to handle the increased volume, which is running at about double the level of a year ago. “Short sales are growing faster than REOs [real estate owned transactions] and that’s a new development,” said Matt Vernon, a BofA executive recently named to a new position of overseeing short sales."

I think the above all remains to be seen since the first part of Jim the Realtor's quote was "...2009 was the year of the loan modification" and frankly while there were all kinds of programs and efforts, loan mods have largely been colossal failures. But that's for another post.

ABC report: "Triple whammy" for real estate market

2010-02-17T08:40:00.000-08:00

Listening to this Channel 7 ABC report they list 4 reasons home prices may drop - clearly not good with math since it's a "triple whammy" headline.

1. Shadow Inventory - California 80,000 homes, and 5 million nationally over the next 2 years according to two studies released yesterday. Both from currently banked owned that haven't hit the market, and those delayed in becoming foreclosures because the owners are trying to get loan modifications right now.

2. Rising interest rates when the government stops buying mortgage backed securities

3. Home buyer tax credit expiring

4. Jobs - I guess this wasn't a "whammy" in this report, but as one interviewee says, it could be the only item that really matters.

The caveat here - right now there is a lack of inventory and high demand. We're hearing a LOT of multiple offer stories, and the above ABC report quotes offers going 5% to 10% over the asking price on the Peninsula. I have several very frustrated buyers here in the City because they can't find what they're looking for. So... Sellers... IF you believe the above report, now is the time to sell.

Video walk thru of 161 San Pablo Ave

2010-02-17T07:26:00.000-08:00

St. Francis Wood REO 161 San Pablo. Video Walk thru

St. Francis Wood Banked Owned REO

2010-02-16T08:03:00.000-08:00

St. Francis Wood, known for it's mansions, large lush green lots and exclusive family neighborhood, now has a Banked owned REO.

161 San Pablo Ave, taken back by Washington Mutual just 2 weeks ago, just got listed on the San Francisco MLS.

161 San Pablo Ave is a 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath 3,740 SqFt home on 4,316 SqFt lot. The home was built in 1956 so it doesn't have the character or charm of the vast majority of homes which were built in the 1920's (with a smattering of teen's and 30's). But this boxy-ish home is large, remodeled and has "panoramic ocean views".

*Currently asking $1,485,000 - just shy of $400 per SqFt which is off the charts low
*Taken back by the bank for $1,748,904
*Listed at the exact wrong time - Sept 2008 just as the financial crisis was becoming national news - at an outrageous $2,650,000 price.
*Re-listed 3 other times with 2 other agents going through price drops of approx. $100,000 along the way until it's last date and price just 3 weeks ago for $2,174,999.

*Sold in early 2006 for $1,825,000 after 7 months on the market starting in June 2005 at $2,390,000.

So it's been a long ride down to $1,485,000. However, as shocking as it seems for St. Francis Wood to have an REO, this home appears to be 15% to possibly 25% under priced. I'll go see it to confirm my opinion asap, but I'd be shocked if this home doesn't fetch at least $1.7M, and $1.9M seems more like it. The only caveats is that it's an average to undersized lot for the neighborhood - many are 1,000 SqFt larger with a number of double sized lots, and that the 1956 era look (and often quality) isn't what buyers in this hood are looking for. But check back in for a video walk through.

333 Main - Infinity 3BR rental

2010-02-13T09:09:00.000-08:00

3 bedroom Craigslist rental at 333 Main St, San Francisco - Infinity "tree top".

Asking price on Craigslist is $5,400. I like to beat up the Infinity for over-priced hype - the "new car" theory of having it depreciate the moment you get the keys. But if the numbers are to be believed here... per tax records the four 3BR condos on the 8th floor all sold for roughly $1.1 million.

Per the NYTimes Rent vs Buy calculator it's a smarter decision to buy this unit for $1.1 million than it is to rent it for $5,000 after just 4 years. I recommend at least a 5 year hold plan to all my clients.

Even if you can get the rent down to $4,000 it's smarter to buy within 16 years. What I like most about this investment is that 3 bedrooms are probably the easiest to rent as they are the rarest of units in the majority of the City.

Of course you can play with the rent vs. buy assumptions to draw your own conclusions. At a 5% 30 year fixed it's 4 years, at 6% it's 8 years before it's smarter to buy, at 7% it's 16 years.

Ritz Carlton rental - same stack as Short Sale

2010-02-12T19:02:00.000-08:00

San Francisco's Ritz Carlton at 690 Market - one rental, one Short Sale.

Yesterday I wrote about the new Short Sale listing at one of San Francisco's most prestigious addresses - 690 Market #2201 asking $1,588,000.

Today I got an email from a colleague advertising #2301 asking $6,900 in rent.

According to the NYTimes Buy vs. Rent tool the unit would need to sell for $1.1 million for Buying to be better than renting within 15 years with a 5% interest rate. Those $2,425 HOA dues are probably the reason.

Golden Gate Bridge View Roof deck at 51 Pixley

2010-02-11T14:27:00.000-08:00

Panoramic views from 51 Pixley's roof deck.

This Single Family home in San Francisco's much sought after Cow Hollow neighborhood is asking $1,495,000 after a very brief time on the market last may at $1,695,000. I should have done a full video walk through because there are no photos in the listing. But overall I felt the home flowed reasonably well - but not being remodeled $701.88 per SqFt might be a bit high.

Short Sale at Ritz Carlton San Francisco

2010-02-11T13:18:00.000-08:00

690 Market St #2201, San Francisco - The Ritz Carlton, San Francisco with a $1,588,000 Short Sale.

Per tax records it sold for $2,173,000 in December 2007. For over a year now they've been trying to sell it at lower and lower prices... $2.295M when they started, and $1.899M for about a month before it was taken off the MLS. But don't get too caught up in the price... if you can't afford the $2,425 monthly HOA fee don't bother :)

Say "hi" to your neighbors from bed

2010-02-11T10:00:00.000-08:00

1635 California St, Unit #71, San Francisco - check out how the bedroom is on the common balcony with the elevator right there too.

An otherwise nice 2BR 2BA Condo "only" $699,000 because of it's "uniqueness"... and now in contract.

Boiling over at 3368 Jackson "Manse Elegante"

2010-02-10T09:37:00.000-08:00

For a great write up on 3368 Jackson St, San Francisco check out this SocketSite.com piece.

But I got a completely different impression of this $4.495M home than many of the commenters. I got a kick out of touring this house. Normally I get a little creeped out by seeing a lifetime of "granny's" things where you feel like you're stepping all over some recently deceased person's life and they're watching you. Not here. I was giggling the entire tour and walked out with a huge smile on my face. This was part museum, part fun house tour (emphasis on fun).

With 35 photos on the MLS listing I didn't need to take much - but I really got a kick out of the boiler and what appears to be a water tank.

What does $400,000 buy you in Cow Hollow?

2010-02-10T09:15:00.000-08:00

2701 Van Ness Apt #503, San Francisco. The apartment was empty, so I figured I'd do a walk thru of this Studio (or Jr 1BR). The price was $419,000 when I walked in, and essentially $399,000 when I walked out.

For all Condos priced between $350,000 and $450,000 throughout San Francisco click here.

Twitter co-founder Selling his Loft?

2010-02-09T13:08:00.000-08:00

I suppose there could be more than one Evan Williams in San Francisco, but 601 4th Street #3P certainly looks like the residence of one of Twitter's cofounders. Twitter was founded in 2006 and didn't begin to take off until 2007 but Evan Williams purchased #3P for $1.5 million in October 2006. Unfortunately for him, after almost 5 months asking $1.498M the price has been dropped to $1.398M.

I bet some tweeting has been done from here.

Hey, he probably doesn't need the money.... so why not try to snap it up for less?

Trouble at San Francisco's Brannan?

2010-02-09T13:07:00.000-08:00

219, 229 and 239 Brannan, the three towers known as The Brannan sports some interesting stats of late:

1 bedroom condos at The Brannan appear to be in trouble. Only 1 has sold in the past 6 months, and 1 in the 6 months prior to that. Yet there are 5 For-Sale right now or a 2 1/2 year supply. Part of the problem is that 3 of the 5 are "distress" sales. Both 219 Brannan #1C and 229 Brannan St #3H are REO's (Banked Owned) and 229 Brannan St #7G is listed as a Short Sale and has an recent Notice of Default filed against it - a NOD is a precursor to foreclosure.

2 bedroom condos at The Brannan are doing much better. 10 have sold in the past 12 months (4 in the past 6 months) with 1 in contract now and 5 For-Sale. So essentially a 6 month supply. The one in contract is Banked Owned, and interestingly one of the 2BR's For-Sale is owned by one of the most prolific Listing Agent's in the building. Does that mean something? There's no such thing as "insider trading" in Real Estate... but does he see a future for the building that he doesn't like???

Foreclosures Alternatives Consultant

2010-02-09T10:15:00.000-08:00

Short Sales in San Francisco, a Foreclosure Alternative.

I don't give too much credit to designations, but by earning the "Foreclosure Alternatives Consultant" badge below I'm just letting people know of one area I'm focused on. I can't help much with loan modifications, or deed in lieu of foreclosure, or other foreclosure alternatives, but I can help you with a San Francisco Short Sale (selling your home with your lender(s) agreement to take a loss because the sales proceeds won't pay for the loan and all transaction costs.

For more info check out my site's San Francisco Short Sale FAQ and San Francisco Short Sales Advantages pages.

Mandatory earthquake retrofit's in San Francisco?

2010-02-08T13:12:00.000-08:00

If Mayor Newsom has his way 2800 "soft story" buildings in San Francisco would be required to do earthquake retrofits. Per this article a pre-1979 wooden structure with a home over a garage or store would be required to retrofit. The way I read this is that Single Family homes and 2-unit buildings with garages would be required to retrofit.

This appears to just be a germ of an idea, not a policy yet, but unless I'm reading this wrong, that effects the vast majority of residential properties in San Francisco. Only homes without garages, and obviously those already retrofitted, would not be effected.

311 Marina Blvd - video walk thru

2010-02-08T13:06:00.000-08:00

Not my best video effort.... but pause or go slowly to see various rooms within 311 Marina Blvd. The biggest key here - NO YARD. Notice on the ground floor where the car is parked outside - that's where a yard would normally be found

When I was there, there seemed to be buyers chomping at the bit. But personally I'd be wary of taking this project on without having a yard.

Dear Tishman/Infinity - PLEASE take my name off your list

2010-02-08T10:33:00.000-08:00

Oh wait, I didn't sell one unit at The Infinity, so my name isn't on this list. Phew!

San Francisco's Infinity - two high rise condo towers and a "tree top" building - are now reporting over 600 sold condos at 301 Main St (365 units), 333 Main St (66 units), 338 Spear St (285 units), a total of 716 units.... so at least 84% sold out.

Unfortunately 715 of the 716 appear to be under water already. The one that isn't under water is 301 Main St #9E because it's been re-sold as a Short Sale.... from $867,000 to $607,000 or a 30% drop in 18 months.

So WHY on earth did anyone buy at the Infinity when they saw this exact thing happen at the Beacon, The Palms, The Watermark and on and on?

Apparently when I wrote 1 year ago about my "new car theory", this past year everyone thought that some how the Infinity would be different. Unfortunately, as soon as you drive ANY new car off the lot it depreciates in value. Tomorrow, the Infinity will be a used car. So why not wait and buy a re-sale?

Speaking of resales, here is 1 in each of the 3 Infinity buildings:

301 Main St #19A - resale at $835k in Oct '09 - meanwhile per the SFGov property tax site the tax basis is $897,531 which is what I think it must have sold for 9 months earlier in Jan '09. That's a 7% drop AFTER the market had already crashed in late 2008.

333 Main #7B - resale in Nov '09 at $760,000 - original sale based on tax records appears to be $819,000 back in March '08. If that's the case I think the seller got lucky, and the buyer bought too "new" of a car, er, condo.

338 Spear St #5D - resale Dec '09 at $815,000 - original sale April '09 was $795,000. Good news right? Up $20,000... but the original buyer probably spent close to $50,000 to sell it, and not including their original closing costs realized a $30,000 loss, NOT a $20k gain. Plus add 8 months of $754 HOA dues and property taxes and my guess is that it probably cost the original buyer close to $10,000 per month to live in their "new car" condo.

Meanwhile, 301 Main #9E and it's 30% drop Short Sale in Dec '09 is more like it. A 30% drop is about what I expect for all Infinity units, including the above re-sales, if they try to re-sell again anytime in the next couple of years. Too bad they didn't buy then... when I hope to have my name WAY UP that list.

If you need to Short Sell your condo - please use the Short Sale Request Form for a free evaluation of your situation and likely success of Short Selling.

3731 Fillmore #4 now for-rent

2010-02-06T17:55:00.000-08:00

3731 Fillmore, a 6-unit TIC building with the final unit recently closing. I just noticed today 2 weeks after Closing that it is listed for rent on Craigslist:

Purchased for $469,000. Now asking rent of $2,695.

I could have gone to today's Open House, but hey, I video taped the lobby and #2 immediately below it and #5 as well plus the building's roof deck.

311 Marina Blvd - $1.8 million Short Sale

2010-02-04T14:05:00.001-08:00

Short Sales in San Francisco are moving up in price. 311 Marina Blvd with what appears to be over $3 million in loans (not $3.5 as I was guessing in the below video), hit the San Francisco MLS as a Short Sale asking $1.8 million. Video walk through to come.
This just a peak at the location and exterior. Pardon the verbal mistakes

3731 Fillmore - all 6 TIC's 100% sold

2010-02-04T13:27:00.000-08:00

Almost a year ago 3731 Fillmore St, San Francisco, tried to sell some of it's 6 TIC units via auction. That debacle is chronicled here in some fun videos.

The highest bid price for unit #2 (first floor facing the back of the building) was for $410,000. The auctioneers refused to sell it for that price because it didn't meet the reserve bid. Then a few months later #2 closed escrow with a "private sale asterisk" and we may never know what it ultimately sold for. HOWEVER, unit #4, the unit directly above it, just closed escrow a couple of weeks ago for $469,000.

Watch as the market speaks with these transactions:
#1 went into contract on Sept 19, 2009 just as people started hearing about the banking crisis. It sold for a LOFTY $710,000
#5 - the most desirable (IMHO) top floor east facing unit sold in March 2009 for $635,000
#2 - June 2009 sale - undisclosed price, but last asking was $499,000 and you can bet it was below that.
#3 and #6 close on the same day in July 2009 for $530k and $560k respectively.

A badly run action produces $410,000, but arguably for the least desirable unit in the worst possible market. It's "sister" unit (because it faces the same way, with the exact same floor plan) sells for $469,000 nearly a year later. Frankly, that looks to me like the market is flat year over year, but clearly down in a big way since before Sept '09 before the financial crisis became national news.

Redfin won't do Short Sales

2010-01-29T12:51:00.000-08:00

Redfin.com has flagged Short Sales in San Francisco.

Redfin.com won't "tour or write offers on short sales" in San Francisco. Redfin is in many more markets than just SF so I'm sure they've flagged short sales in all markets, but I found this tidbit when looking up a Palms condo (555 4th St, San Francisco). Here's a screen capture of the listing - not the highlighted box on the upper right hand side:

So while I normally don't do shameless plugs for business, the difference between us and Redfin is we know how to evaluate whether or not a Short Sale has a good chance of selling or not (50% don't succeed in San Francisco, but that's usually a problem with the Listing Agent's ability - or know how in the sense that the property never had a chance of succeeding as a Short Sale in the first place).

If you can identify legit short sale opportunities you can buy properties for roughly 5% to 10% below "fair market value" (more on this on some future post, or call or email for details).

How to make sure a Short Sale goes through

2010-01-27T09:44:00.000-08:00

As a follow up to yesterday's Short Sale post - and San Francisco's measly 50% close ratio for Short Sales vs. the guys at Group 46:10 in Arizona who close 90+%. In this video they tell a story that just happened - about how they kept a Short Sale from going into foreclosure:

Tenacity with a capital T.

Short Sales in San Francisco

2010-01-26T10:31:00.000-08:00

I found an Arizona blog where they said 20% of their market's Closed sales were Short Sales. It takes til minute 6 of this 8 minute video for this one stat.

These guys claim to have a better than 90% success rate in closing their short sales. That's definitely not the perception in San Francisco. SF agents largely dismiss Short sales, and in my one short sale experience I got a fantastic offer that the Lender refused only to foreclose on it and then sell it for $110,000 less 6 months later as an REO. In another video the above guys say first lien holders are making 28% to 36% less in an REO sale vs. a Short Sale.

So with 20% in this particular Arizona market being Short Sales, where these guys also say 70% of owners are under water and 60% of all sales are a "distress" sale, with their 90+% close rate (just from this team, not the entire market for sure), how does San Francisco stack up?

To cut to the conclusion - with details to follow - 5.8% of 2009 sales in San Francisco (MLS data) were Short Sales. 11.1% were REO's for 16.9% "distress" sales. Homes were about twice as likely to be "distress" vs. Condos/Lofts (I excluded TIC's and Coops). And in our market there is one failed Short Sale for every one that Closed in 2009.

Here are the details:

As of Jan 25 2010, per the San Francisco MLS, Condo & Loft Short Sale counts:
For Sale = 54
In-Contract ("Contingent" or "Pending") = 81
Sold during the past 12 months = 79
Expired/Withdrawn the past 12 months = 77 that never sold

With 6.8 seller on average per month the 54 For-Sale equals an 8 month supply. Hard to say about the 77 expired/withdrawn. Many are probably bank owned now, and others are probably re-listed and I haven't look to compare.

Single Family Home Short Sales in San Francisco
For Sale = 43
In Contract = 103
Sold past 12 months = 139
Expired/Withdrawn the past 12 months = 151 that never sold

11.6 selling on average per month so 43 for-sale equals less than 4 months supply.

Lastly, I found one agent in town with a better than 90% Close ratio, but I also found one who had 7 listings and none of them closed. Several agents had that many and were able to close slightly above 50%.

111 Chestnut St - 4 sales of 1 unit

2010-01-25T17:10:00.000-08:00

111 Chestnut St #806, San Francisco re-sold 4 times since 1998. Just one "apple" as Socketsite.com likes to call them, to guage the ups and downs of the San Francisco real estate market.

November 1998 #806 sold for $315,000
October 2003 sold for $403,750
July 2006 it sold for $630,000
December 2009 it sold for $500,000

So down 20.6% since 2006, but still up 24% since 2003 and nearly a 60% return since 1998. Judging from the 2009 photo of the kitchen, I'd guess that little, if anything, has been spent on upgrades since the 90's so this should be a true San Francisco "apple" to "apple" comparison.

Bubble to Bust, the story of Oceanview Village

2010-01-25T15:24:00.000-08:00

Bubble to Bust, the story of 8100, 8200, 8300 & 8400 Oceanview Terrace, aka Oceanview Village in San Francisco

8100 Oceanview Ter #104 was purchased for $575,000 with only 5% down in February 2005. The Listing said there were multiple offers. It re-sold in March 2009 for $300,000 apparently with an additional $21,000 going to the Jr Lender and $15,000 to the HOA which is the equivalent of 31 to 38 months of unpaid dues.

While I suppose there could be late fees in that HOA number, let's just assume the original buyer paid dues for just over 1 year and then stopped. And that just happens to coincide with a new $220,000 loan taken out in April 2006. This is a total guess, but it may have been a cash out re-fi of the $86,250 second loan - so at 100% financial an appraiser believed #104 to be worth $680,000 in April 2006.

That's just one story. Since Jan 2009 there have been 26 recorded MLS sales in 8100, 8200, 8300 and 8400 Oceanview Terrace. 9 2BR's, 1 3BR and 16 1BR's. The 1BR's ranged from $205,000 to $308,000, the 2BR's from $300,000 to $385,000 and the 3BR for $410,000. The highest price per SqFt was $478.79 with the average of all 26 at $397.40

In all of 2005 there were 27 recorded MLS sales among the 4 related buildings. 11 2BR's, 1 3BR and 15 1BR's. The 1BR's ranged from $389,000 to $521,000, the 2BR's from $497,000 to $575,000 and the 3BR for $637,000. The highest price per SqFt was $478.79 with the average of all 27 at $625.21

Comparing number over number we're looking at price drops of 33% to 47%. #104 was down 42.4%.
Prices have dropped so much, that now the "affordable" San Francisco Mayor's Office of Housing below-market rate condos like 8100 Oceanview Ter #122, a 3BR would probably barely be fetch it's $366,685 in 2003 price in today's market.

Shocking turn around in SF Real Estate

2010-01-23T14:35:00.000-08:00

December 2009 vs. December 2008 - night and day in San Francisco Real Estate

Three charts showing the massive year over year change in the San Francisco 2 BR Condo market. This is Terradatum data using SFAR MLS info.

Shocking truth #1
The number of listed Condos is down 18% year over year while sales are up 74%

Shocking truth #2
San Francisco 2BR Condo supply went from 9 months to 4 months year over year.

Shocking truth #3
The number of 2 Bedroom Condos that Expired dropped in half year over year

And now for the caveats:
Of course the numbers are better. It could only get better from last year's armageddon. December Sales represent October and November contracts - the words "bailout" and "financial crisis" became the watch words of the day starting in late September 2008. Real Estate practically came to a standstill in San Francisco at that time.

With so few buying, demand built up. Buying only started slowly again with an uptick from March thru June and took off from August through December with November the peak for 2009 2 Bedroom Condos.

Now what? 2010 will no doubt be an interesting year. Right now demand feels strong, interest rates are still at record lows, and inventory still feels in short supply. In other words, expect similar charts for the next 3 to 6 months.

Deal of the Week: 555 4th St 1BR for $405,000

2010-01-22T13:43:00.000-08:00

Deal of the Week: Banked Owned REO at The Palms:
555 4th St #625 1BR for $405,000

Per tax records 555 4th St #625 (The Palms) was purchased for $598,000 in 2006. It was then taken back by the Bank for $510,698 this past October. Listed by an out of area agent (don't get me started at that topic) for $450,000 not even 3 weeks later (well, a fast bank turn around at least) it went into contract one month later. But yesterday, it came back onto the MLS for $405,000 representing a 33% loss from it's '06 purchase price. Pretty typical of what I'm seeing at The Palms and just about all of the newer buildings in the area.

6th floor is over the roof tops looking across 4th Street where this unit and this balcony face.

Penthouse 1B at The Watermark - REO update

2010-01-21T10:56:00.000-08:00

San Francisco's "Watermark" at 501 Beale St. Penthouse 1B, a banked owned REO listed at $893,475 just went into contract.

Video walk through.

Update:
I just heard from the Listing Agent that the Bank accepted an offer. ~~No change yet on the MLS.~~ er, now "Pending" as of Jan 22, 2010. ~~Nor~~ No info on who bought it, or the purchase price. (yet - stay tuned)

Some fun facts about this listing:

an out of area Agent based in the East Bay

They enter this condo into the MLS as a Single Family home

Only have 1 really bad photo of the exterior

Listed as not having parking

No mention of the Condo's best feature - a large balcony off the living room with pano views

It's a wonder anyone found this listing and that they got an offer.

Andy Sirkin on TIC's

2010-01-20T12:40:00.000-08:00

Andy Sirkin, the well known San Francisco TIC attorney spoke at our Pacific Union office meeting this morning. One thing I've been curious about is his estimate on how long it would take for new TIC buildings of 3 to 6 units to win the lottery and complete conversion if you started today. "20 years" was his guess. In other words, if you're buying into a newly formed TIC - plan on selling it as a TIC.

Among the MANY other tidbits of info I gleamed from a very informative hour are:
- Sterling Bank is pretty much the only fractional lender left - other than when Builders have gotten previous commitments from other fractional lenders.
- the 2010 condo conversion lottery will happen in the next couple of weeks. Those who have been in for 7 years are in "Pool A" and he thinks they have a 90% chance of winning the right to convert. Those in "Pool B" may have a 1% to 2% chance of winning because there are so many tickets in that pool.
- almost all of the news for TIC's was bad - except for 2-unit buildings who qualify for lottery bypass - if you can bypass the lottery (and there are 2-unit buildings that can't due to eviction history or only one owner-occupier) the good news is that processing times are much faster - technically a 2-unit might be able to complete a conversion in as little as 15 months due to processing of as little as 3 months.

$599,000 in San Rafael vs. San Francisco

2010-01-20T09:36:00.001-08:00

My business partner Ciara Piron has a listing in San Rafael - only $599,000 for 3 bedrooms, lots of outdoor space, views, etc.

For $575,000O in San Francisco's Pacific Heights - you could buy a one bedroom at 1701 Jackson.

Or buy this 3bed 3bath 3Car on 1.38 acres in Bend Oregon

Fixer in the Marina District

2010-01-20T08:42:00.000-08:00

1624 Bay St in the Marina District has been an eyesore for several years. Per San Francisco's permit site there were complaints about construction going back to 2005 or about the time I moved into the neighborhood. Wow, 5 years, far longer than I thought. Maybe, finally, they'll fix it.

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

2010-01-19T16:06:00.000-08:00

San Francisco foreclosure update - Banked Owned properties on the SFAR MLS:

In wondering if REO's are up, down or flat in the City the most interesting finding is just how down total homes for sale are - not much pickings out there for Buyers.

Today's Jan 19th 2010 update:
Homes = 38 REO's of 368 total listed single family homes for-sale. So 10.3% of all current listings are REO's.
Condos = 19 REO's out of 422 condos listed for sale or 4.5%

Here's the chart with previous reports below it:

The last REO update on Nov 25, 2009:
Homes = 37 REO's of 484 total listed for-sale or 7.6%
Condos = 15 REO's of 606 condos or 2.5%

Homes = 31 REO's of 578 total listed for-sale or 5.4%
Condos = 29 REO's of 668 condos or 4.3%

On July 18th 2009 San Francisco MLS listed foreclosures were:

Homes = 31 REO's of 578 total listed for-sale or 5.4%
Condos = 29 REO's of 668 condos (not including TIC's etc this time) or 4.3%

My February 2009 update included TIC's and lofts
Homes = 44 REO's of 570 total homes listed for-sale or 7.7%
Condos = 23 REO's of 949 condos/lofts/TIC's/coops (condo only number is a better metric - and I estimate at least 220 were TIC's of the total) so 5.2% of San Francisco condos were REO's

Craigslist Apartments via Map

2010-01-16T08:29:00.000-08:00

Using a Map UI to find apartments on Craigslist in San Francisco and everywhere else Craiglist is used.
First there was SFRentStats at http://mullinslab2.ucsf.edu/SFrentstats/ but it is only in San Francisco. Now there's PadMapper.com. It's got an "embed" feature so I'm embeded the San Francisco search below. Have at it:

View Larger Map

"Green" moving boxes

2010-01-15T09:08:00.000-08:00

"Green" moving boxes - moving in San Francisco? Make it green.

Interesting concept from a new San Francisco based company called Zippgo. Use re-usable plastic boxes for your move, therefore keeping from using one-time cardboard boxes.

I have some questions on how "green" this concept really is including:
1. are the boxes themselves made from recycled plastic - I'd hate to see them eventually go into landfill - and while they say they can be used 400 times vs. cardboard's once or twice - which is better if it isn't recycled plastic? (update: "the boxes are made from 100% recycled plastic" per the owner)

2. these boxes must be cleaned between uses. What is the environmental impact of cleaning them 400 times before they can't be used any more vs. discarding cardboard boxes? Fact - taking your car to a car wash is much more environmentally friendly then washing your own car. Why? They re-use their water and are economical in how much water and soap they use per car vs. an individual. So, how much water/soap for "green" boxes vs. impact of discarding cardboard?

3. they drop off and pick up - that's gas and emissions from a truck. I'll probably assume this is a non- issue since you would need to pick up cardboard boxes too, and then they get picked up and sent to landfill. (update - "we deliver the boxes using trucks powered by biodiesel made from waste vegetable oil" per owner)

I like the concept - but what's the true environmental impact?
(update - so far so good on the answers to our questions)

The Listings are coming the Listings are coming

2010-01-12T12:36:00.000-08:00

Notice in this chart the uptick in new Condo listings in San Francisco's "District 7" (Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights & Presidio Heights) in February 2008 and February 2009.

Feb '09 was also artificially low with all that was going on in the economy and stock market at that time. So my guess is that Feb 2010 will be closer to '08 than '09. So if you've been house hunting in San Francisco, and think the homes for sale inventory has been disappointing, fasten your seat belt. Post Super Bowl (let's go Jets :) expect a flood of new listings.

Bank's BPO price vs. market price

2010-01-12T12:35:00.000-08:00

The Beacon at 250 King and 260 King San Francisco has fallen on hard times with a growing number of Short Sales and REO's. Unfortunately many Short Sales are still not going through, and when they don't they usually become REO listings a few months later. One reason - unrealistic Banks.

250 King St Unit #636 appears to be one of those listings. The former Short Sale listing said "Lender has BPO of $565,000 and will not pay for back HOA dues."

Originally listed in April 2008 for $599,000 there were no takers for 3 months. 6 months later the same Listing firm re-listed it in January 2009, but this time as a Short Sale asking $525,000. It bounced around in price and in and out of contract over the next 6+ months it finally was removed from the MLS in August at $498,000.

A "BPO" is a Broker's Price Opinion. Usually banks get more than one opinion, and often they are not local agents. Regardless, the $565,000 BPO and the failure to sell at $498,000 isn't even the most shocking part of the story. It's that when it was re-listed as an REO in November at $413,325 it has now gone through TWO PRICE drops to $392,660 after 28 days, and now down to $373,027 just a couple of days ago.

More history - per tax records #636 was purchased for $575,000 in March 2006 representing a 35% drop in value at it's current asking price. The buyer appears to have put 10% down based on two loans adding up to $517,500.

Click here to view 250 King St Unit #636.

For Rent in the Marina

2010-01-12T09:58:00.000-08:00

For Rent in San Francisco's Marina District.
13 total for-rent apartments within 3 blocks of each other.

4 photos of 3 rental signs on the same block as 1456 Chestnut:

In addition to the 3 above, I found what appears to be 9 more in the video below. 13 in total within 3 blocks of each other. A sign (no pun intended) of things to come? Or a coincidence?

1456 Chestnut photo update

2010-01-11T16:23:00.000-08:00

1456 Chestnut St, San Francisco photo update.
I got out of my car and took a closer look at the building and snapped this photo of the front steps. While I still haven't been inside, this apparent foundation damage may partly explain the $709,000 price tag.

Cheapest Single Family home in the Marina since 2002

2010-01-10T10:53:00.000-08:00

1456 Chestnut Street in San Francisco's Marina District just came on the market at only $709,000. Tax records seem to say it's zoned RH-3 (Residential, House, 3 dwellings) and even if not, just based on the building heights of its two neighbors it certainly looks like it could be a fix and flip similar to 3041 Laguna (see below).

The last time a Single Family Home with at least 2 bedrooms (yes, there are 1 bedroom homes in San Francisco) sold that low or lower was 1999 according to the San Francisco MLS. In 2002 one sold in nearby Cow Hollow for $749,000. Otherwise, the homes on Laguna Street in Cow Hollow (click here for 3020 Laguna video & post) have been the cheapest of late in the low and mid $900's. It's only day #1 on the MLS, and it's got a listed offer date of January 15th. If you're not working with a Realtor and are interested in this home, you can reach us at www.SFisHOME.com

UPDATE: 3020 Laguna is now on the SFAR MLS asking $950,000.

Cow Hollow Single Family home for $950,000

2010-01-06T17:56:00.000-08:00

Well I wrote on December 16th that 3020 Laguna Street was "coming soon" - see video report below. I called the Listing Agent today for an update and he says it was submitted to the San Francisco MLS manually since he is not a member of the San Francisco Association of Realtors. That manual submission he figured would take a day, and it was submitted Monday. It's still not on the MLS as of 6pm today January 6th.

If you'd like to be informed immediately when the home comes onto the market be sure to create an account at www.SF-MLS-Search.com

Or check back regularly for all For-Sale properties in Cow Hollow at Cow Hollow Homes for sale.

Banked Owned at the Watermark in San Francisco

2010-01-06T17:32:00.000-08:00

A Banked Owned REO at The Watermark, 501 Beale St, San Francisco, just had another price drop. It didn't sell at $495,000, or at $470,250 so now it is $446,738. The news here is that according to tax records it sold for $725,000 in January 2007. That's roughly a 40% drop in just 3 years. What's more, per the tax records the owner did a cash-out refinance just 6 months after buying getting a $780,000 loan. So an appraiser valued it at least at $780,000.

Tough times at the Watermark.

For all For-Sale listings at the Watermark click here 501 Beale St Listings

Or search all San Francisco listings at www.SF-MLS-Search.com

Coming Soon & the tale of 1 Cow Hollow block?

2009-12-16T12:32:00.000-08:00

Is Cow Hollow hot enough that only a "coming soon" for-sale sign is enough to sell the home? The tale of a few similar homes on 1 Cow Hollow block.

In the below video I was just walking by and noticed a "Coming Soon" sign - and in my video was trying to remember past prices.... so a few quick facts to correct what I recalled on the fly in the video:

3055 Laguna - a single family home in Cow Hollow, was asking $829,000 and just sold on 11/22 for $929,000. Apparently with 5 offers.

I then refer to a home across the street that sold for "about a million". Well, in 2003 it sold for $850,000 but then in 2007 it sold for $1,389,000. Whoa! For some reason I thought it went for $1.1 or so.

Then to the home in question, 3020 Laguna with it's "Coming Soon" sign. The agent told me over the phone that he had it on his website, but I don't see it there (www.mariomarianirealtor.com). He said it was listed for $1.3 million or some really high number, but that everyone assumed it would probably sell somewhere in the $900,000's.

Well - in this video - I do a walk through - and yes, $900's is it's maximum value.

Finally, I refer to 3041 Laguna as a multi-unit building but it was just a much larger single family home with multiple levels. Check out the before and after photos here:

BEFORE
Sold for $1.1 million in Nov 2005 (915 SqFt on a 2173 SqFt lot)

AFTER
A "private" sale (just outlawed by the San Francisco Association of Realtors). But just visit propertyshark or zillow and you'll find public tax record info. But suffice to say, when it was asking $3.75 million you know it sold for over $3 million.

So - what to do with the home in question? 3020 Laguna. Try to create a $3 million home ala 3041 Laguna, or some how pull off a $500,000 increase with next to now work? Ahh right, that's yesteryear's market. Stay tuned, and we'll report on what happens to "Coming Soon" which is STILL not on the San Francisco MLS.

Over promising & under delivering - a bad real estate recipe

2009-12-16T09:25:00.000-08:00

Over promising and under delivering is a bad recipe in any facet of life, and one I wish we could ban in real estate here in San Francisco.

This TIC on Laguna Street in the Marina is currently listed with a photo of the Living room with windows facing Moscone Rec Park. I had seen all 4 TIC units in this building when it first came on the market so I knew the only two I liked at all were the front units with views of the Park.

In the view I state that I thought they all sold for around $700,000. Well, the other three sold in the mid to high $700's. Meanwhile, I guess that the one on the market is the front one BECAUSE of the MLS photo showing the front unit, and guess that today's value is around $550,000, or at least lower than it's new $599k asking price.

Then I show up on Tuesday's "Broker's Tour" and you can hear the annoyance in my voice that in fact the photo was misleading and #1 is the rear unit with views of the small yard and the neighboring building.

So my value guess now? Closer to $525k. A long drop from $699k.

Mayor's Office of Housing: down payment assistance

2009-12-15T00:55:00.000-08:00

Get down payment assistance from San Francisco's Mayor's Office of Housing. This is for REO's and Short sales only, along with income restrictions, and quite a few other restrictions. But if you qualify, you can get help with up to $60,000 in down payment. Read up on "DALP" here.

There's also a long list of lenders who are "participating lenders" and I know two of them, Christine Rocca at BofA and Gordon Friedman at Guarantee Mortgage. So if you think you might qualify, give one of them a call for more details.

Interesting take on San Francisco's real estate market from my firm

2009-12-14T20:39:00.000-08:00

My firm, Pacific Union, has a much more interesting take on San Francisco's real estate market that the two articles in my earlier post.

Discussing the "rate of demand" vs home supply for San Francisco single family homes.

Supply - or homes available for sale in San Francisco have only increased by 0.1% per year since 1998 from just shy of 63,000 homes to just above 63,000. "Rate of demand" is the percentage of all single family homes that sell in a given year. San Francisco's average rate of demand has been 4.7%. At that pace it would take 21.3 years for the entire inventory of homes to change hands.

When demand is above average prices tend to climb, when below, they tend to drop. More details and Pacific Union's take on the 2010 San Francisco market can be found here, and the chart is below:

Two bullish articles on Real Estate & the economy

2009-12-14T10:05:00.000-08:00

Business Week and the New York Times each have very bullish articles on both housing and the economy.

From Business Week:
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/dec2009/bw2009127_753974.htm
The author tries to make the case that interest rate is more important than purchase price - that each 1/4 point is worth roughly $12,000 so if rates go from today's 5% to, lets say 8% in a year or two, he claims that's worth nearly $144,000 in value. In other words, if prices decline due to interest rates going up, you've got that built in.

Meanwhile, from the NYT article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/13/your-money/13fund.html?_r=1
They keep referring to the stock market rally from March lows as a "bull market" and how the "second phase" of the bull market might look.

Ahh, but the counter arguments are pretty obvious - no? And barely mentioned. Purchase price is paramount if you need to sell within 5 years. If you can hold for 30, then yes, lock in what will likely end up being the last time we ever see 5% interest rates. But the shorter your time line, the more advantageous it is to wait for even lower prices if you expect that to happen.

As for the NYT's "bull market". There are many economists who think the market must test the March lows before it can really become a bull market. And that could play out over the next 2 to 4 years, not the next 2 to 4 months. I'd be cautious messing around in the stock market since it's up so much higher than it's lows. Where can it really go now without earnings? And right now companies are not earning.

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

2009-11-25T23:41:00.000-08:00

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

On February 22nd 2009 I reported foreclosures/REO's listed on the San Francisco MLS

Homes = 44 REO's of 570 total homes listed for-sale or 7.7%
Condos = 23 REO's of 949 condos/lofts/TIC's/coops (condo only number is a better metric which I have below - estimate at least 220 were TIC's of the total) so 5.2% of San Francisco condos were REO's

On July 18th 2009 San Francisco MLS listed foreclosures were:

Homes = 31 REO's of 578 total listed for-sale or 5.4%
Condos = 29 REO's of 668 condos (not including TIC's etc this time) or 4.3%

Today, November 25th 2009 San Francisco MLS listed foreclosures are:

Homes = 37 REO's of 484 total listed for-sale or 7.6%
Condos = 15 REO's of 606 condos or 2.5%

Interesting that Condo foreclosures are way down, but homes are up from July, and flat from February. Total foreclosures have trended down as a percentage of total properties for-sale in San Francisco, and as raw numbers. 67 in February, 60 in July, and 52 now. That contradicts other reporting I've read. One guess may be that Short Sales are up.... that's for another post.

San Francisco's Marina District - all For Sale homes

2009-11-20T11:18:00.000-08:00

To see all homes and condos For Sale on the San Francisco MLS in the Marina District, bookmark this link:
http://www.mlsfinder.com/ca_sfar/robregan?action=newsearchsession&zip_code=94123&property_type=Single%20Family%20Homes&property_type=Condominium

Tracking San Francisco's SOMA & South Beach markets

2009-11-07T11:04:00.001-08:00

Two recent listings to help track San Francisco's SOMA & South Beach markets

In May 2006 88 King St #1304, San Francisco sold for $1,260,000. Today it is on the MLS asking $995,000. If it sells there that's over a 20% price drop - or 100% equity loss if the owners put 20% down when they purchased.

In March 2008 555 4th St #814, San Francisco (the Palms) sold for $649,800. Today it is on the market for $550,000. A sale at the asking price would be a 15% drop. Unfortunately they've been asking $550,000 for 71 days, so it's more likely to also see a 20% drop.

To see these two listings on the MLS you can enter their addresses at www.SF-MLS-Search.com/welcome.html

$8,000 & $6,500 tax credits San Francisco buyers might be able to use

2009-11-07T10:42:00.000-08:00

San Francisco home buyers have a much better chance of using the Home Buyer Tax Credits.

Income levels for the original $8,000 home buyer tax credit was $75,000 for a single person and $150,000 for joint filers. Those may be spectacular incomes in 90% of the country, but in places like San Francisco and New York City they barely make ends meet, let alone purchase a starter 1 bedroom condo in a neighborhood like Cow Hollow of Noe Valley.

But with both the House and Senate passing an extension of the tax credit that was to expire November 30th to April 30th 2010, they also increased the income limits to $125,000 (single) and $225,000 (joint). Of course the max home price is $800,000 which is only slightly above San Francisco's average home price. $800,000 buyers you a fantastic 1 bedroom Condo, or a small or "flawed" 2 bedroom condo (lack of parking for example) in neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, Russian Hill and even Noe Valley and Cole Valley. $800,000 however does get you a Single Family home in many other neighborhoods like the outer Richmond, the Sunset, even Glen Park or a "fixer" in Noe Valley.

San Francisco home buyers have until April 30, 2010 to enter into a contract to purchase via a 60 day extension.

The bill also provides a new existing homeowner credit - if you've lived in your current home for 5+ years you qualify for a $6,500 credit on a new purchase (there probably won't be a lot of San Francisco trade-ups to $800,000 since that's often a beginner condo/home in many San Francisco neighborhoods).

To start a home search in San Francisco try www.SF-MLS-Search.com/welcome.html and feel free to contact the SFisHOME team for help at info AT sfishome DOT come

2009-11-06T10:20:00.000-08:00

What’s Happening in San Francisco, Marin, the Peninsula and South Bay

For Saturday Nov 7th and Sunday Nov 8th

SAN FRANCISCO

For more SF listings please: click here

2nd Annual Fabulous Food Festival

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Saturday, Nov 7 10:00a to 5:00p

Price: $10 general / $7 seniors

Phone: (415) 388-7208

Age Suitability: All Ages

at San Francisco Design Center: Concourse Exhibition Center, San Francisco, CA
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What is the creation story behind the tasty marinade or flatbread? How did someone’s family pancake recipe turn into the family fortune? One hundred fifty exhibitors at the 2nd Annual Fabulous Food Festival ARE EXCITED TO INTRODUCE YOU TO THE NEXT BIG TASTE SENSATION! Pacific Expositions invites everyone to explore and discover what’s NEW, HOT, SPICY and COOL just in time for the home chef’s holiday entertaining and gift creations!

27th Annual San Francisco Jazz Festival presents Milton Nascimento --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, Nov 7 7:00p

Price: $25/$40/$55/$75

Phone: (866) 920-5299

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Nob Hill Masonic Center: Nob Hill Masonic Auditorium, San Francisco, CA

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Milton Nascimento is one of Brazil's most famous vocalists. For this performance, Nascimento focuses on the bossa nova standards that provided him with early inspiration, songs he explores on his 2008 album, Novas Bossas. It’s a rare opportunity to hear one of the world’s most beloved and influential musicians delve into the songs that shaped him.

3rd i's Seventh Annual San Francisco International South Asian Film Festival
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Saturday, Nov 7 12:00p to 10:00p

Price: $10 general; discount passes available

Phone: (415) 835-4783

Age Suitability: Teens and up

at Castro Theatre, San Francisco, CA

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From art-house classics to documentary films, from innovative and experimental visions to cutting-edge Bollywood, 3rd i is committed to promoting diverse images of South Asians through independent film. The 2009 festival includes offerings from India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Australia, Canada, Germany, UK and the USA. read more

African Dance and Drum Festival
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00p to 11:00p

Price: $25, Seniors & Students $20

Age Suitability: None Specified

at African American Art and Culture Complex, San Francisco, CA

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The Sixth Annual San Francisco African Dance and Drum Festival runs from November 4,- November 8, 2009. The Festival has been enjoyed by over 1,000 attendees each year. The Saturday, November 7th, 9pm Gala African Dance and Drum Performance Features master drummers and dancers including Ndeye Gueye (Thiossanou African Dance Company), "Bontle featuring Neopolitan", Ousseynou Kouyate, Mohammed Kouyate, and many more - at the African American Art & Culture Complex, 762 Fulton,San Francisco.

MARIN

Marin Art School 2009 Student Show
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00a to 9:00p

Price: Free

Phone: (415) 499-6014

Age Suitability: None Specified

at Marin Civic Center: Marin Veterans Memorial Auditorium, San Rafael, CA

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Adult students of the Marin Art School in Novato are showcased in this exhibit at the Marin Veteran’s Memorial Auditorium in San Rafael. This exhibit in the Redwood Foyer is not open to the public daily. Those attending Marin Veteran’s Memorial Auditorium events are welcome to view the exhibit. The public IS invited to the public reception hosted by Marin Arts Council and Friends of Marin Center from 5 to 7 p. read more

Open Secret Bookstore & The Rainbow Body Cultural Center
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Saturday, Nov 7 11:00a

Price: Varies

Phone: (415) 457-4191

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Open Secret Bookstore, San Rafael, CA

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Open Secret Book, Music and World Art Gallery and the Rainbow Body Cultural Center celebrate our 20th year in San Rafael

Come enjoy a cup of homemade chai tea & nestle on a comfortable couch with a good book. Find healing in the bookstore's art-filled temple and enjoy the variety of daily events including, tarot, meditation, lectures and cultural performances.

PENINSULA & SOUTH BAY

20th Annual Dickens Faire at Bethel Church
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00a to 5:00p

Phone: (408) 246-6790

Age Suitability: None Specified

at Bethel Church of San Jose, San Jose, CA

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The Women's Mininstries of Bethel Church will be sponsoring their 20th Annual Dickens Faire, November 6th, 10am-8pm, November 7th, 9am-5pm, and November 8 Noon-3pm. Over 50 vendors from all across the Bay Area. Stroll the aisles to find holiday, decorations, handmade arts and craft, antiques. Have lunch or dinner at the Holly and Ivy Cafe. read more

Pioneer High School Boutique
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00a to 4:00p

Phone: (408) 535-6310

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Pioneer High School, San Jose, CA

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Holiday Boutique at Pioneer High School, November 7th from 9:00 am to 4:00 pm. this is a fundraiser for the school radio station. Vendor space still available. Located at 1290 Blossom Hill Rd, between Meridian and Almaden Expressway it's a great shopping location.

Kitten and Cat Adoption Fair
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Saturday, Nov 7 11:00a to 3:00p

Price: free admission

Phone: (888) 538-9402

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Petco, Redwood City, CA
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Come and join us for a spectacular adoption fair. We are adopting out many adorable kittens and cats!! We are Humanimal Connection... a non-profit, no-kill organization that is run entirely by volunteers.

11/6-11/8: Mel Cotton Sporting Goods' Resort Days 2009. Free Lift Ticket!
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Saturday, Nov 7 10:00a to 9:00p

Price: FREE

Phone: (408) 287-5994

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Mel Cotton's Sporting Goods, San Jose, CA

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Join Mel Cotton Sporting Goods for Resort Days 2009! Don’t miss Mel Cotton’s million-dollar kick-off sale, with all ski and snowboard gear at the best prices of the season including snow bibs at $24.99 and retired rental skis from $50. Spend $50 at the event and get a lift pass to Bear Valley or spend $100 and get a pass to Kirkwood while supplies last.

Case-Shiller home price index: San Francisco MSA

2009-11-01T11:59:00.000-08:00

Results for Case-Shiller home price index: San Francisco MSA

I lifted a bit of research from a SocketSite commenter named "HappyRenter" and added a bit more analysis to see what's been happening with San Francisco "MSA" home prices (think Bay Area, not just the City of San Francisco, when looking at MSA numbers).

If the above is a bit hard to read check out the online PDF at http://homesofsf.googlepages.com/Case-Shillerresearch.PDF

Note that prices bottomed in both tiers in April 2009 (think March since contracts probably happened then, with Closes in April). This is in line with March Stock market bottom. Since the bottom prices are up 16.5% and 13.2% respectively in the Top and Bottom tiers. Those are pretty amazing jumps, and probably why Robert Shiller said we may be entering into another bubble.

Of course this hasn't happened in the City of San Francisco, but some believe we're tracking the larger MSA but on at a much delayed pace. So we've yet to bottom, and are not currently going up. Others believe we did bottom in March and have risen slightly. In my opinion the City is too large and diverse to draw any one conclusion. Every neighborhood, price range, and type of property is reacting differently. If you have questions on "your market", feel free to drop us a line and we'll do an analysis for you if you don't currently work with another Realtor.

Conforming Loan limits extended

2009-10-30T12:24:00.000-07:00

Conforming loan limits for high-cost areas of the United States will remain at $729,750 through the end of 2010 following action in the House and Senate this week to extend the ability of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration to make and purchase those bigger loans.The higher limits were set to expire Dec. 31. The extension removes some year-end uncertainty for mortgage companies, which had already been preparing for lower limits. Without the new law, the high-cost loan limit would have fallen back to $625,500."Given the lack of a private secondary mortgage market, FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are pretty much the only game in town," said Robert Story Jr., chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Extending the current loan limits through 2010 will allow more loans to qualify for these important programs and will help keep mortgage credit more accessible and affordable for qualified borrowers.""As we try to maintain the momentum of the housing recovery, providing affordable financing for qualified borrowers is critical. Extending the loan limits, along with other initiatives such as extending and expanding the home-buyer tax credit, will help restore stability to the housing and mortgage markets," he said.The jumbo mortgage market, loans that are above the Fannie/Freddie/FHA limits, virtually froze in the credit crunch of the last year, limiting the ability of borrowers and buyers in many cities to purchase or refinance homes. The higher limits, along with efforts by the Federal Reserve and Treasury to buy up mortgage securities, was meant to maintain liquidity in the mortgage markets.Fannie and Freddie, though, have there own problems. They are held in receivership by the government, and the debate over their future is a contentious one. Legislation to overhaul the mortgage agencies could come next year, but its shape is anything but certain.In the meantime, the FHA has become the lender of choice. As much as one-third of new mortgages today are being underwritten by the agency, which does not provide the loans but offers an insurance guarantee backed by the U.S. to lenders, with some lenders reporting 50% or more of their business is with the FHA.That has skeptics, who cite troubling default ratios in recent FHA loans, worried that the next big bailout will be of that agency.-- Steve Kerch, assistant managing editor/personal financeHOME-BUYER TAX CREDIT IS ADMINISTRATIVE NIGHTMARELast November, J. Russell George, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, warned the Internal Revenue Service that if they didn't ask for documentation from people filing for the first-time home-buyer credit, there would be fraud. The IRS ignored the advice. The result? The IRS doled out about $620 million to ineligible filers. Big deal, you might say. How does it affect me? Well, thanks to the problems, the IRS is now checking every return by hand.If you're among the millions of people who bought or plan to buy a first home in 2009, be prepared for long delays in getting your tax refund sent to you
sent from a BlackBerry

Short Sales on the rise but not REO's

2009-10-30T11:21:00.001-07:00

Short Sales on the rise but not necessarily REO's

Word on the street is that while Notices of Default may be on the rise - that does not mean you should expect a rise in REO's.

The reasons:
1) Lenders are starting to finally figure out that Short Sales can save them time and money vs. REO's.

2) In areas outside of the City of San Francisco where an investor might buy REO's in bulk from a bank - the public may not see any evidence in a rise in REO's because they are turned around and placed on the market NOT as REO's because they aren't anymore.

Similar to yesterday's post - one of the conclusions is that there's more than meets the eye when trying to read the market.
sent from a BlackBerry

Could San Francisco home prices rise dramatically again?

2009-10-29T16:23:00.000-07:00

Could San Francisco home prices rise dramatically again?

I thought I was reading an old article when I read Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller said "It is entirely possible that even with the bad news we are getting, home prices could start a major increase….what happens from here will depend on people's animal spirits and speculative impulses,"

Click here for the link to the article.

The article specifically references San Francisco:
"Home prices in certain areas like San Francisco, have risen by double-digits over four months, and if viewed on an annualized basis, they look like they are in 'bubble territory,' Shiller said."

When the Case-Shiller Index refers to "San Francisco" they are usually referring to the San Francisco "MSA" or what I'd refer to as the "Bay Area". There definitely have been pockets of strength in the City of San Francisco recently, but for big gains you can look outside of the City in low-cost areas where investors and first time home buyers are snapping up foreclosures. I predict gains to be realized in the next few reports for two reasons - the reports are old news, and Closed sales are actually reflect the month earlier action - you contract at a price, and don't get it reported until it Closes, often 30 days later.

Home prices fell off a cliff starting in late September 2008. We're probably a few weeks from seeing how this September did vs. last September, but the real news will be October over October and even November over November since again, a November sales price reflects a October contract - immediately after everyone was worried sick about the economy.

The month over month reports should be extremely interesting for a full year - and could - as Robert Shiller suggests - cause a new bubble mentality with reports of big increases leading to even bigger increases.

Foreclosure vs. Short Sale - which is best

2009-10-29T10:05:00.000-07:00

Foreclosure vs. Short Sale - which is best?
Well neither is good. But there has been a lot of noise that Short Sales are so much better for owner/sellers than Foreclosures. From what I can tell some of the claimed advantages just aren't true. There are some advantages though.

Firstly, reviewing pages 3 thru 5 at eFanniemae.com's 2008 0816 announcement which describes underwriting rule changes in how Fannie Mae treats bankruptcies, foreclosures, short sales and other negatives transfers. If you go through a Short sale, they won't loan to you for 2 years. If you go through a foreclosure they won't loan to you for 3 to 5 years depending on whether you had "extenuating circumstances".

But the "noise" I am referring to about foreclosures supposedly being better than Short Sales is that from all indications your credit rating will get severely damaged in either scenario, and it's probably unlikely that your credit score will be high enough in 2 years time to qualify for any decent loan.

So is a Short Sale really better than a foreclosure? I think that's a case by case question.... and one you probably need to discuss with an attorney especially since one of the biggest questions is when and how a lender can go after you for a "deficiency judgement" on the amount owed.

SF Water ordinance update

2009-10-25T17:42:00.001-07:00

San Francisco real estate Water Ordinance update:
It's official, Sellers must get a water inspection, fix any problems, and once you pass the inspection have it recorded. I hired Alex Mak Energy 415-533-3322) recently for $100 inspection and $75 recording fee. That was after a few calls and I figured I had found the best price until a colleague recommended Timothy Branham (415-269-9361) who charged $40 less.

The inspections took all of 10 minutes, so hopefully in time these might get even cheaper. Of the two inspections I needed for my listings, one passed, the other needed a new toilet - and Alex Mak got the toilet and installed it for $300.

For more on the Water Ordinance you can download the City's pamphlet at
http://homesofsf.googlepages.com/WaterOrdinanace.pdf

3011 Jackson St #2 - new SFisHOME Group listing

2009-10-02T21:10:00.000-07:00

New listing from the SFisHOME Group: 3011 Jackson St, #2, San Francisco, CA 94115

Click on "view detailed listing" link below to check out the video walk and larger photos, description, etc.

New listing: Luxury San Rafael Condo

2009-08-11T17:22:00.000-07:00

Just Listed: 187 Professional Center Parkway, San Rafael

New on the Market. This exceptional property has been completely remodeled and has everything you need to enjoy your days off on the spacious back deck just soaking the sun or designing your own garden, because everthing else has been done for you. This home also features a media room/family room, home office/sleeping loft, balcony with views of Marin Hills, laundry room & 2 car garage parking with storage. Minutes to the 101 for an easy commute (15 Mins to GGB) and Terra Linda Farmer's Market, Shopping Mall, Mulberry's Pizza and Scotty's Market.

Tim Geithner can't sell his home

2009-08-06T10:03:00.000-07:00

From The Daily Show - Tim Geithner's home:

Home Crisis Investigation

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show
Full Episodes

Political Humor

Spinal Tap Performance

FHA loans in San Francisco

2009-08-05T13:43:00.000-07:00

FHA loans in San Francisco - "spot approval" for your condo.

I just got off the phone with a lender I know at Bank of America who explained that it's very costly and time consuming for a building to get FHA approved, but very easy for a Buyer to get the particular condo unit they are interested in approved.

There are lots of criteria that must be met, but they are pretty basic and relatively easy info to track down. I'm quite sure the following list is not complete, so call your lender (or contact me and I'll provide my lender's contact info) for more details.

1. 7+ unit building - so condos in 2 to 6 unit buildings don't qualify
2. 51% owner occupied. That's a pretty low bar if you ask me
3. no "special assessments" in the past 12 months, and none planned
4. no current legal action against the building

The benefits of FHA loans are that as little as 3.5% downpayment is required, and your credit doesn't have to be as squeaky clean as a "normal" loan.

You might say "didn't low down with sub-par credit get us into the trouble we're in now?" To that I'd say 'yes', except I'm quite sure you have to prove your income to support your payments which is NOT what was happening in the crazy days that led us into this mess. In addition, San Francisco prices have already dropped, and the belief that real estate will only got up is now gone. Having SOME availability of decent loan products is important. Having a plethora of loan products for anyone who could breath (and some who couldn't when the con men got involved) was what really got us in trouble.

So if you earn a good income, but don't have a ton of money saved up, or your credit isn't what it could be, and you are interested in either a Single Family home, or a condo in a 7+ unit building, be sure to ask your lender how the FHA loan stacks up. For condos, ask the Listing Agent, the HOA Board or the Property Management firm the basic questions about assessments, litigation and owner-occupancy percentage. Your lender should also have a form that will need to be filled out.

SFisHomeBlog

SFisHOME re-launches it's blog

Ingelside hot, 32 Josiah not

Things that make you go "hmmmm". 215 Moulton

3190 Scott St (um, Lombard) hits the market

School lottery out - new rules in

Why so much Short Sale info on this San Francisco blog?

Bank of America's Short Sale Department

Bankruptcy problems for homeowners in distress

Photo Phriday

Short Sales in California - Schwarzenegger's take

San Francisco BMR units

Update on 210 Mallorca - 5 offers?

First San Francisco Neighborhood Stabilization Program sale?

Beacon Short Sale: 250 King St #450

Out from the Shadows: an REO hits the market

TIC now a rental: 2831-33 Webster St #4

SOMA Grand - only 3 condos remain

An Attorney want to tackle this one?

New listing: 1BR Marina Condo

Photo Phriday

3020 Laguna now for-rent AND to be demolished

Photo Phriday

Deal of the week: 210 Mallorca St, San Francisco

3 tips for delaying foreclosure

Another Watermark Penthouse REO

Beacon REO: 250 King St #810

1310 Fillmore St #802 - delayed Foreclosure?

Pacific Heights Foreclosure Auction: 224 Presidio Ave

Marina District Foreclosure Auction: 3157 Baker St

Bay Area prices - 2007 to 2009

Photo Phriday

Cheapest Marina home Closes Escrow

"Owner May Carry"

Bad marketing

$545,000 Price..... er, reduction

Rents dropping like a rock in San Francisco

Tough times at The Palms, 555 4th St, San Francisco

Luxury Market stats in "D7" - north end of SF

2010 "the year of the short sale"

ABC report: "Triple whammy" for real estate market

Video walk thru of 161 San Pablo Ave

St. Francis Wood Banked Owned REO

333 Main - Infinity 3BR rental

Ritz Carlton rental - same stack as Short Sale

Golden Gate Bridge View Roof deck at 51 Pixley

Short Sale at Ritz Carlton San Francisco

Say "hi" to your neighbors from bed

Boiling over at 3368 Jackson "Manse Elegante"

What does $400,000 buy you in Cow Hollow?

Twitter co-founder Selling his Loft?

Trouble at San Francisco's Brannan?

Foreclosures Alternatives Consultant

Mandatory earthquake retrofit's in San Francisco?

311 Marina Blvd - video walk thru

Dear Tishman/Infinity - PLEASE take my name off your list

3731 Fillmore #4 now for-rent

311 Marina Blvd - $1.8 million Short Sale

3731 Fillmore - all 6 TIC's 100% sold

Redfin won't do Short Sales

How to make sure a Short Sale goes through

Short Sales in San Francisco

111 Chestnut St - 4 sales of 1 unit

Bubble to Bust, the story of Oceanview Village

Shocking turn around in SF Real Estate

Deal of the Week: 555 4th St 1BR for $405,000

Penthouse 1B at The Watermark - REO update

Andy Sirkin on TIC's

$599,000 in San Rafael vs. San Francisco

Fixer in the Marina District

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

More Short Sales problems

Craigslist Apartments via Map

"Green" moving boxes

The Listings are coming the Listings are coming

Bank's BPO price vs. market price

For Rent in the Marina

1456 Chestnut photo update

Cheapest Single Family home in the Marina since 2002

Cow Hollow Single Family home for $950,000