TIC now a rental: 2831-33 Webster St #4

2831-33 Webster St #4 is a TIC in a 6 unit building on a prime Pac Heights/Cow Hollow block.

This 3 bedroom 1 bath sold for $820,000 in 2007 - arguably the San Francisco market peak. Prior to that the entire building sold in 2004 for $2,370,000. That buyer did great because they sold 4 of the 6 units for $2,449,000.

Unfortunately unit #4's more recent 2007 buyer didn't do so well. Starting a year ago they tried selling at $895,000, and withdrawn and listed 2 more times with the last failed attempt to sell at $799,000. Now on Craigslist asking $4,000 and from what I know of the rental market, that may be $500 over priced.

Then again, it's got Golden Gate Bridge views and a deck... and just a 1/2 block from Union Street it just might attract a $4,000 renter. On the other hand the NYTimes Rent vs Buy calculator says it's better to buy at $800,000 vs. $4,000 in rent. So the problem here is it's a TIC, and TIC's are definitely not selling well vs. Condos in San Francisco right now.

Pacific Heights Foreclosure Auction: 224 Presidio Ave

224 Presidio Avenue in Pacific Heights had a scheduled for Foreclosure Auction date of February 19th.

Unlike yesterday's story about 3157 Baker, 224 Presidio is not on the San Francisco MLS, so presumably it sold at Auction. The rest of the story is otherwise very similar. There was a mortgage a year in '04, '05 and '06. It's impossible to tell from tax records, but it looks like a $2.25 million first loan from 2005 and a $250,000 2nd from 2006. The judgement amount was $2.4 million.

Like 3157 Baker it went onto the market at well over $1,000 per SqFt right around the time the financial crisis became national news. Pulled 3 weeks later they re-listed it in January '09 at the same $3,995,000 price but then reduced by $345,000 3 months later, and withdrawn 4 months after that in August '09... and the default date was one month later.

Like 3157 Baker it appears 224 Presidio either has no yard, or a very small one. And while it's Presidio Ave location is a lot quieter than Richarson Ave, it's not exactly the most sought after Pacific Heights location. And like 3157 Baker I'd put the fair market value closer to it's default amount than it's attempted 2008 sale price.

The bottom line.... another "District 7" luxury San Francisco foreclosure.

Luxury Market stats in "D7" - north end of SF

Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, the Marina, Presidio Heights $2M to $3M market.
A quick look at the past 6 months as compared to the same time period in each of the prior 6 years. This is the $2 million to $3 million Single Family home market in Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, the Marina & Cow Hollow. With all sales btwn $2M and $3M most of the average and medians for these time periods were right around $2.5 million so I'll focus on price per SqFt, and the size of home you can get for that price, and number of sales:

'03-'04 - 25 sales, $713 per SqFt, 3,586 Avg SqFt
'04-'05 - 25 sales, $793 per SqFt, 3,140 Avg SqFt
'05-'06 - 14 sales, $1,026 per SqFt, 2,634 Avg SqFt
'06-'07 - 20 sales, $847 per SqFt, 2,937 Avg SqFt
'07-'08 - 9 sales, $918 per SqFt, 2,793 Avg SqFt
'08-'09 - 8 sales, $901 per SqFt, 2,806 Avg SqFt
'09-present - 14 sales, $802 SqFt, 3,290 Avg SqFt

Oh so many caveats here. For one I had to take out the Bourn Mansion sale - 2550 Webster was an extreme fixer that had 9762 SqFt for "only" $2.79M. Of course that buyer is going to put in MILLIONS of dollars to restore it and it seriously skewed the price per SqFt and the average SqFt.

Secondly, this price range and area is notorious for private non-MLS Sales (and this is all San Francisco MLS data) and for "undisclosed" prices.

Still, the above is general guidance. Prices are back to the late '04 early '05 levels with Sellers becoming more realistic and total sales improving over the past 2 years' results. But sales are up, and the anecdotal evidence from agents in my office is that there is a LOT of off-MLS sales happening right now. Sellers and Buyers are cutting deals. This is one of those times I think it's a good time to be a Buyer or a Seller. Well, Sellers might not think that because prices are way down from peak, but if you want to sell, there is definitely demand right now. And if you want to buy, you should find it easier to negotiate a deal rather than finding nothing but unrealistic and totally inflexible sellers.

Well, maybe they still aren't
<------ this flexible.

$599,000 in San Rafael vs. San Francisco

My business partner Ciara Piron has a listing in San Rafael - only $599,000 for 3 bedrooms, lots of outdoor space, views, etc.


For $575,000O in San Francisco's Pacific Heights - you could buy a one bedroom at 1701 Jackson.


Or buy this 3bed 3bath 3Car on 1.38 acres in Bend Oregon

3011 Jackson St #2 - new SFisHOME Group listing

New listing from the SFisHOME Group: 3011 Jackson St, #2, San Francisco, CA 94115

Click on "view detailed listing" link below to check out the video walk and larger photos, description, etc.

New York City to try auctioning off new condos

What struck me most about this New York Times article about new condo developments in Manhattan turning to auction companies to sell off slow moving inventory was the very last sentence "The average sales price of a two-bedroom Upper East Side condo was just above $1 million in 2002. It rose to $1.5 million in 2004, and to $2.2 million at its peak in 2008."

What is so shocking is that not only did the Upper East Side 2BR's significantly outpace San Francisco in percentage appreciation, but look at the following chart and the real dollar difference between the two cities. From 2002 through 2008 Upper East Side 2BR condos increased $1.2 million, or the entirety of Pacific Heights 2008 average price.
















Pacific Heights has basically caught up with the Upper East Side's 2002 price. Now I'm from New York City and realize that the Upper East Side and Pacific Heights are two vastly different areas. Maybe I should throw in Russian Hill to pull in some of the expensive Coop buildings like 999 Green. But either way, New York City has gone through the roof while San Francisco experienced a much more even pace of appreciation.

Meanwhile, New York is getting crushed right now by the financial crisis after having been the biggest beneficiary of the out sized Wall Street bonuses. Sprinkle in a little Ponzi scheme from Madoff, and then compare to San Francisco.

The bottom line, New York has to fall in half to be "as cheap as San Francisco" is today, which it might. But will San Francisco's better neighborhoods like Pacific Heights fall like you'd expect New York to fall? When I left in 1997 to move here, New York was cheaper than San Francisco. So you can draw your own conclusions.