What does $400,000 buy you in Cow Hollow?

2701 Van Ness Apt #503, San Francisco. The apartment was empty, so I figured I'd do a walk thru of this Studio (or Jr 1BR). The price was $419,000 when I walked in, and essentially $399,000 when I walked out.

For all Condos priced between $350,000 and $450,000 throughout San Francisco click here.

Twitter co-founder Selling his Loft?

I suppose there could be more than one Evan Williams in San Francisco, but 601 4th Street #3P certainly looks like the residence of one of Twitter's cofounders. Twitter was founded in 2006 and didn't begin to take off until 2007 but Evan Williams purchased #3P for $1.5 million in October 2006. Unfortunately for him, after almost 5 months asking $1.498M the price has been dropped to $1.398M.

I bet some tweeting has been done from here.

Hey, he probably doesn't need the money.... so why not try to snap it up for less?

Trouble at San Francisco's Brannan?

219, 229 and 239 Brannan, the three towers known as The Brannan sports some interesting stats of late:

1 bedroom condos at The Brannan appear to be in trouble. Only 1 has sold in the past 6 months, and 1 in the 6 months prior to that. Yet there are 5 For-Sale right now or a 2 1/2 year supply. Part of the problem is that 3 of the 5 are "distress" sales. Both 219 Brannan #1C and 229 Brannan St #3H are REO's (Banked Owned) and 229 Brannan St #7G is listed as a Short Sale and has an recent Notice of Default filed against it - a NOD is a precursor to foreclosure.

2 bedroom condos at The Brannan are doing much better. 10 have sold in the past 12 months (4 in the past 6 months) with 1 in contract now and 5 For-Sale. So essentially a 6 month supply. The one in contract is Banked Owned, and interestingly one of the 2BR's For-Sale is owned by one of the most prolific Listing Agent's in the building. Does that mean something? There's no such thing as "insider trading" in Real Estate... but does he see a future for the building that he doesn't like???

Foreclosures Alternatives Consultant

Short Sales in San Francisco, a Foreclosure Alternative.

I don't give too much credit to designations, but by earning the "Foreclosure Alternatives Consultant" badge below I'm just letting people know of one area I'm focused on. I can't help much with loan modifications, or deed in lieu of foreclosure, or other foreclosure alternatives, but I can help you with a San Francisco Short Sale (selling your home with your lender(s) agreement to take a loss because the sales proceeds won't pay for the loan and all transaction costs.

For more info check out my site's San Francisco Short Sale FAQ and San Francisco Short Sales Advantages pages.

Mandatory earthquake retrofit's in San Francisco?

If Mayor Newsom has his way 2800 "soft story" buildings in San Francisco would be required to do earthquake retrofits. Per this article a pre-1979 wooden structure with a home over a garage or store would be required to retrofit. The way I read this is that Single Family homes and 2-unit buildings with garages would be required to retrofit.

This appears to just be a germ of an idea, not a policy yet, but unless I'm reading this wrong, that effects the vast majority of residential properties in San Francisco. Only homes without garages, and obviously those already retrofitted, would not be effected.

311 Marina Blvd - video walk thru

Not my best video effort.... but pause or go slowly to see various rooms within 311 Marina Blvd. The biggest key here - NO YARD. Notice on the ground floor where the car is parked outside - that's where a yard would normally be found


When I was there, there seemed to be buyers chomping at the bit. But personally I'd be wary of taking this project on without having a yard.

Dear Tishman/Infinity - PLEASE take my name off your list

Oh wait, I didn't sell one unit at The Infinity, so my name isn't on this list. Phew!


San Francisco's Infinity - two high rise condo towers and a "tree top" building - are now reporting over 600 sold condos at 301 Main St (365 units), 333 Main St (66 units), 338 Spear St (285 units), a total of 716 units.... so at least 84% sold out.

Unfortunately 715 of the 716 appear to be under water already. The one that isn't under water is 301 Main St #9E because it's been re-sold as a Short Sale.... from $867,000 to $607,000 or a 30% drop in 18 months.

So WHY on earth did anyone buy at the Infinity when they saw this exact thing happen at the Beacon, The Palms, The Watermark and on and on?

Apparently when I wrote 1 year ago about my "new car theory", this past year everyone thought that some how the Infinity would be different. Unfortunately, as soon as you drive ANY new car off the lot it depreciates in value. Tomorrow, the Infinity will be a used car. So why not wait and buy a re-sale?

Speaking of resales, here is 1 in each of the 3 Infinity buildings:

301 Main St #19A - resale at $835k in Oct '09 - meanwhile per the SFGov property tax site the tax basis is $897,531 which is what I think it must have sold for 9 months earlier in Jan '09. That's a 7% drop AFTER the market had already crashed in late 2008.

333 Main #7B - resale in Nov '09 at $760,000 - original sale based on tax records appears to be $819,000 back in March '08. If that's the case I think the seller got lucky, and the buyer bought too "new" of a car, er, condo.

338 Spear St #5D - resale Dec '09 at $815,000 - original sale April '09 was $795,000. Good news right? Up $20,000... but the original buyer probably spent close to $50,000 to sell it, and not including their original closing costs realized a $30,000 loss, NOT a $20k gain. Plus add 8 months of $754 HOA dues and property taxes and my guess is that it probably cost the original buyer close to $10,000 per month to live in their "new car" condo.

Meanwhile, 301 Main #9E and it's 30% drop Short Sale in Dec '09 is more like it. A 30% drop is about what I expect for all Infinity units, including the above re-sales, if they try to re-sell again anytime in the next couple of years. Too bad they didn't buy then... when I hope to have my name WAY UP that list.

If you need to Short Sell your condo - please use the Short Sale Request Form for a free evaluation of your situation and likely success of Short Selling.

3731 Fillmore #4 now for-rent

3731 Fillmore, a 6-unit TIC building with the final unit recently closing. I just noticed today 2 weeks after Closing that it is listed for rent on Craigslist:



Purchased for $469,000. Now asking rent of $2,695.

I could have gone to today's Open House, but hey, I video taped the lobby and #2 immediately below it and #5 as well plus the building's roof deck.

311 Marina Blvd - $1.8 million Short Sale

Short Sales in San Francisco are moving up in price. 311 Marina Blvd with what appears to be over $3 million in loans (not $3.5 as I was guessing in the below video), hit the San Francisco MLS as a Short Sale asking $1.8 million. Video walk through to come.
This just a peak at the location and exterior. Pardon the verbal mistakes

3731 Fillmore - all 6 TIC's 100% sold

Almost a year ago 3731 Fillmore St, San Francisco, tried to sell some of it's 6 TIC units via auction. That debacle is chronicled here in some fun videos.

The highest bid price for unit #2 (first floor facing the back of the building) was for $410,000. The auctioneers refused to sell it for that price because it didn't meet the reserve bid. Then a few months later #2 closed escrow with a "private sale asterisk" and we may never know what it ultimately sold for. HOWEVER, unit #4, the unit directly above it, just closed escrow a couple of weeks ago for $469,000.

Watch as the market speaks with these transactions:
#1 went into contract on Sept 19, 2009 just as people started hearing about the banking crisis. It sold for a LOFTY $710,000
#5 - the most desirable (IMHO) top floor east facing unit sold in March 2009 for $635,000
#2 - June 2009 sale - undisclosed price, but last asking was $499,000 and you can bet it was below that.
#3 and #6 close on the same day in July 2009 for $530k and $560k respectively.

A badly run action produces $410,000, but arguably for the least desirable unit in the worst possible market. It's "sister" unit (because it faces the same way, with the exact same floor plan) sells for $469,000 nearly a year later. Frankly, that looks to me like the market is flat year over year, but clearly down in a big way since before Sept '09 before the financial crisis became national news.

Redfin won't do Short Sales

Redfin.com has flagged Short Sales in San Francisco.

Redfin.com won't "tour or write offers on short sales" in San Francisco. Redfin is in many more markets than just SF so I'm sure they've flagged short sales in all markets, but I found this tidbit when looking up a Palms condo (555 4th St, San Francisco). Here's a screen capture of the listing - not the highlighted box on the upper right hand side:


So while I normally don't do shameless plugs for business, the difference between us and Redfin is we know how to evaluate whether or not a Short Sale has a good chance of selling or not (50% don't succeed in San Francisco, but that's usually a problem with the Listing Agent's ability - or know how in the sense that the property never had a chance of succeeding as a Short Sale in the first place).

If you can identify legit short sale opportunities you can buy properties for roughly 5% to 10% below "fair market value" (more on this on some future post, or call or email for details).

How to make sure a Short Sale goes through

As a follow up to yesterday's Short Sale post - and San Francisco's measly 50% close ratio for Short Sales vs. the guys at Group 46:10 in Arizona who close 90+%. In this video they tell a story that just happened - about how they kept a Short Sale from going into foreclosure:


Tenacity with a capital T.

Short Sales in San Francisco

I found an Arizona blog where they said 20% of their market's Closed sales were Short Sales. It takes til minute 6 of this 8 minute video for this one stat.



These guys claim to have a better than 90% success rate in closing their short sales. That's definitely not the perception in San Francisco. SF agents largely dismiss Short sales, and in my one short sale experience I got a fantastic offer that the Lender refused only to foreclose on it and then sell it for $110,000 less 6 months later as an REO. In another video the above guys say first lien holders are making 28% to 36% less in an REO sale vs. a Short Sale.

So with 20% in this particular Arizona market being Short Sales, where these guys also say 70% of owners are under water and 60% of all sales are a "distress" sale, with their 90+% close rate (just from this team, not the entire market for sure), how does San Francisco stack up?

To cut to the conclusion - with details to follow - 5.8% of 2009 sales in San Francisco (MLS data) were Short Sales. 11.1% were REO's for 16.9% "distress" sales. Homes were about twice as likely to be "distress" vs. Condos/Lofts (I excluded TIC's and Coops). And in our market there is one failed Short Sale for every one that Closed in 2009.

Here are the details:

As of Jan 25 2010, per the San Francisco MLS, Condo & Loft Short Sale counts:
For Sale = 54
In-Contract ("Contingent" or "Pending") = 81
Sold during the past 12 months = 79
Expired/Withdrawn the past 12 months = 77 that never sold

With 6.8 seller on average per month the 54 For-Sale equals an 8 month supply. Hard to say about the 77 expired/withdrawn. Many are probably bank owned now, and others are probably re-listed and I haven't look to compare.

Single Family Home Short Sales in San Francisco
For Sale = 43
In Contract = 103
Sold past 12 months = 139
Expired/Withdrawn the past 12 months = 151 that never sold

11.6 selling on average per month so 43 for-sale equals less than 4 months supply.

Lastly, I found one agent in town with a better than 90% Close ratio, but I also found one who had 7 listings and none of them closed. Several agents had that many and were able to close slightly above 50%.

111 Chestnut St - 4 sales of 1 unit

111 Chestnut St #806, San Francisco re-sold 4 times since 1998. Just one "apple" as Socketsite.com likes to call them, to guage the ups and downs of the San Francisco real estate market.

November 1998 #806 sold for $315,000
October 2003 sold for $403,750
July 2006 it sold for $630,000
December 2009 it sold for $500,000


So down 20.6% since 2006, but still up 24% since 2003 and nearly a 60% return since 1998. Judging from the 2009 photo of the kitchen, I'd guess that little, if anything, has been spent on upgrades since the 90's so this should be a true San Francisco "apple" to "apple" comparison.