I found an Arizona blog where they said 20% of their market's Closed sales were Short Sales. It takes til minute 6 of this 8 minute video for this one stat.
These guys claim to have a better than 90% success rate in closing their short sales. That's definitely not the perception in San Francisco. SF agents largely dismiss Short sales, and in my one short sale experience I got a fantastic offer that the Lender refused only to foreclose on it and then sell it for $110,000 less 6 months later as an REO. In another video the above guys say first lien holders are making 28% to 36% less in an REO sale vs. a Short Sale.
So with 20% in this particular Arizona market being Short Sales, where these guys also say 70% of owners are under water and 60% of all sales are a "distress" sale, with their 90+% close rate (just from this team, not the entire market for sure), how does San Francisco stack up?
To cut to the conclusion - with details to follow - 5.8% of 2009 sales in San Francisco (MLS data) were Short Sales. 11.1% were REO's for 16.9% "distress" sales. Homes were about twice as likely to be "distress" vs. Condos/Lofts (I excluded TIC's and Coops). And in our market there is one failed Short Sale for every one that Closed in 2009.
Here are the details:
As of Jan 25 2010, per the San Francisco MLS, Condo & Loft Short Sale counts:
For Sale = 54
In-Contract ("Contingent" or "Pending") = 81
Sold during the past 12 months = 79
Expired/Withdrawn the past 12 months = 77 that never sold
With 6.8 seller on average per month the 54 For-Sale equals an 8 month supply. Hard to say about the 77 expired/withdrawn. Many are probably bank owned now, and others are probably re-listed and I haven't look to compare.
Single Family Home Short Sales in San Francisco
For Sale = 43
In Contract = 103
Sold past 12 months = 139
Expired/Withdrawn the past 12 months = 151 that never sold
11.6 selling on average per month so 43 for-sale equals less than 4 months supply.
Lastly, I found one agent in town with a better than 90% Close ratio, but I also found one who had 7 listings and none of them closed. Several agents had that many and were able to close slightly above 50%.