Coming Soon & the tale of 1 Cow Hollow block?

Is Cow Hollow hot enough that only a "coming soon" for-sale sign is enough to sell the home? The tale of a few similar homes on 1 Cow Hollow block.

In the below video I was just walking by and noticed a "Coming Soon" sign - and in my video was trying to remember past prices.... so a few quick facts to correct what I recalled on the fly in the video:

3055 Laguna - a single family home in Cow Hollow, was asking $829,000 and just sold on 11/22 for $929,000. Apparently with 5 offers.

I then refer to a home across the street that sold for "about a million". Well, in 2003 it sold for $850,000 but then in 2007 it sold for $1,389,000. Whoa! For some reason I thought it went for $1.1 or so.



Then to the home in question, 3020 Laguna with it's "Coming Soon" sign. The agent told me over the phone that he had it on his website, but I don't see it there (www.mariomarianirealtor.com). He said it was listed for $1.3 million or some really high number, but that everyone assumed it would probably sell somewhere in the $900,000's.

Well - in this video - I do a walk through - and yes, $900's is it's maximum value.


Finally, I refer to 3041 Laguna as a multi-unit building but it was just a much larger single family home with multiple levels. Check out the before and after photos here:

BEFORE
Sold for $1.1 million in Nov 2005 (915 SqFt on a 2173 SqFt lot)



AFTER
A "private" sale (just outlawed by the San Francisco Association of Realtors). But just visit propertyshark or zillow and you'll find public tax record info. But suffice to say, when it was asking $3.75 million you know it sold for over $3 million.




So - what to do with the home in question? 3020 Laguna. Try to create a $3 million home ala 3041 Laguna, or some how pull off a $500,000 increase with next to now work? Ahh right, that's yesteryear's market. Stay tuned, and we'll report on what happens to "Coming Soon" which is STILL not on the San Francisco MLS.

Over promising & under delivering - a bad real estate recipe

Over promising and under delivering is a bad recipe in any facet of life, and one I wish we could ban in real estate here in San Francisco.

This TIC on Laguna Street in the Marina is currently listed with a photo of the Living room with windows facing Moscone Rec Park. I had seen all 4 TIC units in this building when it first came on the market so I knew the only two I liked at all were the front units with views of the Park.


In the view I state that I thought they all sold for around $700,000. Well, the other three sold in the mid to high $700's. Meanwhile, I guess that the one on the market is the front one BECAUSE of the MLS photo showing the front unit, and guess that today's value is around $550,000, or at least lower than it's new $599k asking price.

Then I show up on Tuesday's "Broker's Tour" and you can hear the annoyance in my voice that in fact the photo was misleading and #1 is the rear unit with views of the small yard and the neighboring building.

So my value guess now? Closer to $525k. A long drop from $699k.

Mayor's Office of Housing: down payment assistance

Get down payment assistance from San Francisco's Mayor's Office of Housing. This is for REO's and Short sales only, along with income restrictions, and quite a few other restrictions. But if you qualify, you can get help with up to $60,000 in down payment. Read up on "DALP" here.

There's also a long list of lenders who are "participating lenders" and I know two of them, Christine Rocca at BofA and Gordon Friedman at Guarantee Mortgage. So if you think you might qualify, give one of them a call for more details.

Interesting take on San Francisco's real estate market from my firm

My firm, Pacific Union, has a much more interesting take on San Francisco's real estate market that the two articles in my earlier post.

Discussing the "rate of demand" vs home supply for San Francisco single family homes.

Supply - or homes available for sale in San Francisco have only increased by 0.1% per year since 1998 from just shy of 63,000 homes to just above 63,000. "Rate of demand" is the percentage of all single family homes that sell in a given year. San Francisco's average rate of demand has been 4.7%. At that pace it would take 21.3 years for the entire inventory of homes to change hands.

When demand is above average prices tend to climb, when below, they tend to drop. More details and Pacific Union's take on the 2010 San Francisco market can be found here, and the chart is below:

Two bullish articles on Real Estate & the economy

Business Week and the New York Times each have very bullish articles on both housing and the economy.

From Business Week:
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/dec2009/bw2009127_753974.htm
The author tries to make the case that interest rate is more important than purchase price - that each 1/4 point is worth roughly $12,000 so if rates go from today's 5% to, lets say 8% in a year or two, he claims that's worth nearly $144,000 in value. In other words, if prices decline due to interest rates going up, you've got that built in.

Meanwhile, from the NYT article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/13/your-money/13fund.html?_r=1
They keep referring to the stock market rally from March lows as a "bull market" and how the "second phase" of the bull market might look.

Ahh, but the counter arguments are pretty obvious - no? And barely mentioned. Purchase price is paramount if you need to sell within 5 years. If you can hold for 30, then yes, lock in what will likely end up being the last time we ever see 5% interest rates. But the shorter your time line, the more advantageous it is to wait for even lower prices if you expect that to happen.

As for the NYT's "bull market". There are many economists who think the market must test the March lows before it can really become a bull market. And that could play out over the next 2 to 4 years, not the next 2 to 4 months. I'd be cautious messing around in the stock market since it's up so much higher than it's lows. Where can it really go now without earnings? And right now companies are not earning.

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

On February 22nd 2009 I reported foreclosures/REO's listed on the San Francisco MLS

Homes = 44 REO's of 570 total homes listed for-sale or 7.7%
Condos = 23 REO's of 949 condos/lofts/TIC's/coops (condo only number is a better metric which I have below - estimate at least 220 were TIC's of the total) so 5.2% of San Francisco condos were REO's

On July 18th 2009 San Francisco MLS listed foreclosures were:

Homes = 31 REO's of 578 total listed for-sale or 5.4%
Condos = 29 REO's of 668 condos (not including TIC's etc this time) or 4.3%

Today, November 25th 2009 San Francisco MLS listed foreclosures are:

Homes = 37 REO's of 484 total listed for-sale or 7.6%
Condos = 15 REO's of 606 condos or 2.5%

Interesting that Condo foreclosures are way down, but homes are up from July, and flat from February. Total foreclosures have trended down as a percentage of total properties for-sale in San Francisco, and as raw numbers. 67 in February, 60 in July, and 52 now. That contradicts other reporting I've read. One guess may be that Short Sales are up.... that's for another post.

San Francisco's Marina District - all For Sale homes

To see all homes and condos For Sale on the San Francisco MLS in the Marina District, bookmark this link:
http://www.mlsfinder.com/ca_sfar/robregan?action=newsearchsession&zip_code=94123&property_type=Single%20Family%20Homes&property_type=Condominium

Tracking San Francisco's SOMA & South Beach markets

Two recent listings to help track San Francisco's SOMA & South Beach markets

In May 2006 88 King St #1304, San Francisco sold for $1,260,000. Today it is on the MLS asking $995,000. If it sells there that's over a 20% price drop - or 100% equity loss if the owners put 20% down when they purchased.

In March 2008 555 4th St #814, San Francisco (the Palms) sold for $649,800. Today it is on the market for $550,000. A sale at the asking price would be a 15% drop. Unfortunately they've been asking $550,000 for 71 days, so it's more likely to also see a 20% drop.

To see these two listings on the MLS you can enter their addresses at www.SF-MLS-Search.com/welcome.html

$8,000 & $6,500 tax credits San Francisco buyers might be able to use

San Francisco home buyers have a much better chance of using the Home Buyer Tax Credits.

Income levels for the original $8,000 home buyer tax credit was $75,000 for a single person and $150,000 for joint filers. Those may be spectacular incomes in 90% of the country, but in places like San Francisco and New York City they barely make ends meet, let alone purchase a starter 1 bedroom condo in a neighborhood like Cow Hollow of Noe Valley.

But with both the House and Senate passing an extension of the tax credit that was to expire November 30th to April 30th 2010, they also increased the income limits to $125,000 (single) and $225,000 (joint). Of course the max home price is $800,000 which is only slightly above San Francisco's average home price. $800,000 buyers you a fantastic 1 bedroom Condo, or a small or "flawed" 2 bedroom condo (lack of parking for example) in neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow, Russian Hill and even Noe Valley and Cole Valley. $800,000 however does get you a Single Family home in many other neighborhoods like the outer Richmond, the Sunset, even Glen Park or a "fixer" in Noe Valley.

San Francisco home buyers have until April 30, 2010 to enter into a contract to purchase via a 60 day extension.

The bill also provides a new existing homeowner credit - if you've lived in your current home for 5+ years you qualify for a $6,500 credit on a new purchase (there probably won't be a lot of San Francisco trade-ups to $800,000 since that's often a beginner condo/home in many San Francisco neighborhoods).

To start a home search in San Francisco try www.SF-MLS-Search.com/welcome.html and feel free to contact the SFisHOME team for help at info AT sfishome DOT come

What’s Happening in San Francisco, Marin, the Peninsula and South Bay


For Saturday Nov 7th and Sunday Nov 8th

SAN FRANCISCO


For more SF listings please: click here


2nd Annual Fabulous Food Festival

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Saturday, Nov 7 10:00a to 5:00p

Price: $10 general / $7 seniors

Phone: (415) 388-7208

Age Suitability: All Ages

at San Francisco Design Center: Concourse Exhibition Center, San Francisco, CA
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What is the creation story behind the tasty marinade or flatbread? How did someone’s family pancake recipe turn into the family fortune? One hundred fifty exhibitors at the 2nd Annual Fabulous Food Festival ARE EXCITED TO INTRODUCE YOU TO THE NEXT BIG TASTE SENSATION! Pacific Expositions invites everyone to explore and discover what’s NEW, HOT, SPICY and COOL just in time for the home chef’s holiday entertaining and gift creations!


27th Annual San Francisco Jazz Festival presents Milton Nascimento --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, Nov 7 7:00p

Price: $25/$40/$55/$75

Phone: (866) 920-5299

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Nob Hill Masonic Center: Nob Hill Masonic Auditorium, San Francisco, CA


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Milton Nascimento is one of Brazil's most famous vocalists. For this performance, Nascimento focuses on the bossa nova standards that provided him with early inspiration, songs he explores on his 2008 album, Novas Bossas. It’s a rare opportunity to hear one of the world’s most beloved and influential musicians delve into the songs that shaped him.



3rd i's Seventh Annual San Francisco International South Asian Film Festival
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Saturday, Nov 7 12:00p to 10:00p

Price: $10 general; discount passes available

Phone: (415) 835-4783

Age Suitability: Teens and up

at Castro Theatre, San Francisco, CA

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From art-house classics to documentary films, from innovative and experimental visions to cutting-edge Bollywood, 3rd i is committed to promoting diverse images of South Asians through independent film. The 2009 festival includes offerings from India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Australia, Canada, Germany, UK and the USA. read more


African Dance and Drum Festival
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00p to 11:00p

Price: $25, Seniors & Students $20

Age Suitability: None Specified

at African American Art and Culture Complex, San Francisco, CA

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The Sixth Annual San Francisco African Dance and Drum Festival runs from November 4,- November 8, 2009. The Festival has been enjoyed by over 1,000 attendees each year. The Saturday, November 7th, 9pm Gala African Dance and Drum Performance Features master drummers and dancers including Ndeye Gueye (Thiossanou African Dance Company), "Bontle featuring Neopolitan", Ousseynou Kouyate, Mohammed Kouyate, and many more - at the African American Art & Culture Complex, 762 Fulton,San Francisco.


MARIN



Marin Art School 2009 Student Show
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00a to 9:00p

Price: Free

Phone: (415) 499-6014

Age Suitability: None Specified

at Marin Civic Center: Marin Veterans Memorial Auditorium, San Rafael, CA

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Adult students of the Marin Art School in Novato are showcased in this exhibit at the Marin Veteran’s Memorial Auditorium in San Rafael. This exhibit in the Redwood Foyer is not open to the public daily. Those attending Marin Veteran’s Memorial Auditorium events are welcome to view the exhibit. The public IS invited to the public reception hosted by Marin Arts Council and Friends of Marin Center from 5 to 7 p. read more


Open Secret Bookstore & The Rainbow Body Cultural Center
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Saturday, Nov 7 11:00a

Price: Varies

Phone: (415) 457-4191

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Open Secret Bookstore, San Rafael, CA

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Open Secret Book, Music and World Art Gallery and the Rainbow Body Cultural Center celebrate our 20th year in San Rafael

Come enjoy a cup of homemade chai tea & nestle on a comfortable couch with a good book. Find healing in the bookstore's art-filled temple and enjoy the variety of daily events including, tarot, meditation, lectures and cultural performances.


PENINSULA & SOUTH BAY


20th Annual Dickens Faire at Bethel Church
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00a to 5:00p

Phone: (408) 246-6790

Age Suitability: None Specified

at Bethel Church of San Jose, San Jose, CA

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The Women's Mininstries of Bethel Church will be sponsoring their 20th Annual Dickens Faire, November 6th, 10am-8pm, November 7th, 9am-5pm, and November 8 Noon-3pm. Over 50 vendors from all across the Bay Area. Stroll the aisles to find holiday, decorations, handmade arts and craft, antiques. Have lunch or dinner at the Holly and Ivy Cafe. read more


Pioneer High School Boutique
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Saturday, Nov 7 9:00a to 4:00p

Phone: (408) 535-6310

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Pioneer High School, San Jose, CA

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Holiday Boutique at Pioneer High School, November 7th from 9:00 am to 4:00 pm. this is a fundraiser for the school radio station. Vendor space still available. Located at 1290 Blossom Hill Rd, between Meridian and Almaden Expressway it's a great shopping location.


Kitten and Cat Adoption Fair
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Saturday, Nov 7 11:00a to 3:00p

Price: free admission

Phone: (888) 538-9402

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Petco, Redwood City, CA
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Come and join us for a spectacular adoption fair. We are adopting out many adorable kittens and cats!! We are Humanimal Connection... a non-profit, no-kill organization that is run entirely by volunteers.


11/6-11/8: Mel Cotton Sporting Goods' Resort Days 2009. Free Lift Ticket!
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Saturday, Nov 7 10:00a to 9:00p

Price: FREE

Phone: (408) 287-5994

Age Suitability: All Ages

at Mel Cotton's Sporting Goods, San Jose, CA

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Join Mel Cotton Sporting Goods for Resort Days 2009! Don’t miss Mel Cotton’s million-dollar kick-off sale, with all ski and snowboard gear at the best prices of the season including snow bibs at $24.99 and retired rental skis from $50. Spend $50 at the event and get a lift pass to Bear Valley or spend $100 and get a pass to Kirkwood while supplies last.

Case-Shiller home price index: San Francisco MSA

Results for Case-Shiller home price index: San Francisco MSA

I lifted a bit of research from a SocketSite commenter named "HappyRenter" and added a bit more analysis to see what's been happening with San Francisco "MSA" home prices (think Bay Area, not just the City of San Francisco, when looking at MSA numbers).



If the above is a bit hard to read check out the online PDF at http://homesofsf.googlepages.com/Case-Shillerresearch.PDF

Note that prices bottomed in both tiers in April 2009 (think March since contracts probably happened then, with Closes in April). This is in line with March Stock market bottom. Since the bottom prices are up 16.5% and 13.2% respectively in the Top and Bottom tiers. Those are pretty amazing jumps, and probably why Robert Shiller said we may be entering into another bubble.

Of course this hasn't happened in the City of San Francisco, but some believe we're tracking the larger MSA but on at a much delayed pace. So we've yet to bottom, and are not currently going up. Others believe we did bottom in March and have risen slightly. In my opinion the City is too large and diverse to draw any one conclusion. Every neighborhood, price range, and type of property is reacting differently. If you have questions on "your market", feel free to drop us a line and we'll do an analysis for you if you don't currently work with another Realtor.

Conforming Loan limits extended

Conforming loan limits for high-cost areas of the United States will remain at $729,750 through the end of 2010 following action in the House and Senate this week to extend the ability of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration to make and purchase those bigger loans.The higher limits were set to expire Dec. 31. The extension removes some year-end uncertainty for mortgage companies, which had already been preparing for lower limits. Without the new law, the high-cost loan limit would have fallen back to $625,500."Given the lack of a private secondary mortgage market, FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are pretty much the only game in town," said Robert Story Jr., chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Extending the current loan limits through 2010 will allow more loans to qualify for these important programs and will help keep mortgage credit more accessible and affordable for qualified borrowers.""As we try to maintain the momentum of the housing recovery, providing affordable financing for qualified borrowers is critical. Extending the loan limits, along with other initiatives such as extending and expanding the home-buyer tax credit, will help restore stability to the housing and mortgage markets," he said.The jumbo mortgage market, loans that are above the Fannie/Freddie/FHA limits, virtually froze in the credit crunch of the last year, limiting the ability of borrowers and buyers in many cities to purchase or refinance homes. The higher limits, along with efforts by the Federal Reserve and Treasury to buy up mortgage securities, was meant to maintain liquidity in the mortgage markets.Fannie and Freddie, though, have there own problems. They are held in receivership by the government, and the debate over their future is a contentious one. Legislation to overhaul the mortgage agencies could come next year, but its shape is anything but certain.In the meantime, the FHA has become the lender of choice. As much as one-third of new mortgages today are being underwritten by the agency, which does not provide the loans but offers an insurance guarantee backed by the U.S. to lenders, with some lenders reporting 50% or more of their business is with the FHA.That has skeptics, who cite troubling default ratios in recent FHA loans, worried that the next big bailout will be of that agency.-- Steve Kerch, assistant managing editor/personal financeHOME-BUYER TAX CREDIT IS ADMINISTRATIVE NIGHTMARELast November, J. Russell George, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, warned the Internal Revenue Service that if they didn't ask for documentation from people filing for the first-time home-buyer credit, there would be fraud. The IRS ignored the advice. The result? The IRS doled out about $620 million to ineligible filers. Big deal, you might say. How does it affect me? Well, thanks to the problems, the IRS is now checking every return by hand.If you're among the millions of people who bought or plan to buy a first home in 2009, be prepared for long delays in getting your tax refund sent to you
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Short Sales on the rise but not REO's

Short Sales on the rise but not necessarily REO's

Word on the street is that while Notices of Default may be on the rise - that does not mean you should expect a rise in REO's.

The reasons:
1) Lenders are starting to finally figure out that Short Sales can save them time and money vs. REO's.

2) In areas outside of the City of San Francisco where an investor might buy REO's in bulk from a bank - the public may not see any evidence in a rise in REO's because they are turned around and placed on the market NOT as REO's because they aren't anymore.

Similar to yesterday's post - one of the conclusions is that there's more than meets the eye when trying to read the market.
sent from a BlackBerry

Could San Francisco home prices rise dramatically again?

Could San Francisco home prices rise dramatically again?

I thought I was reading an old article when I read Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller said "It is entirely possible that even with the bad news we are getting, home prices could start a major increase….what happens from here will depend on people's animal spirits and speculative impulses,"

Click here for the link to the article.

The article specifically references San Francisco:
"Home prices in certain areas like San Francisco, have risen by double-digits over four months, and if viewed on an annualized basis, they look like they are in 'bubble territory,' Shiller said."

When the Case-Shiller Index refers to "San Francisco" they are usually referring to the San Francisco "MSA" or what I'd refer to as the "Bay Area". There definitely have been pockets of strength in the City of San Francisco recently, but for big gains you can look outside of the City in low-cost areas where investors and first time home buyers are snapping up foreclosures. I predict gains to be realized in the next few reports for two reasons - the reports are old news, and Closed sales are actually reflect the month earlier action - you contract at a price, and don't get it reported until it Closes, often 30 days later.

Home prices fell off a cliff starting in late September 2008. We're probably a few weeks from seeing how this September did vs. last September, but the real news will be October over October and even November over November since again, a November sales price reflects a October contract - immediately after everyone was worried sick about the economy.

The month over month reports should be extremely interesting for a full year - and could - as Robert Shiller suggests - cause a new bubble mentality with reports of big increases leading to even bigger increases.