Antidote to the Real Estate naysayers

Wish I could take credit for this compilation of old headlines... but it comes from the COO of Intero Real Estate, Tom Tognoli, by way of an Escrow rep I know, Lili Seif at CornerStone Title Company:

“The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.”
– Time Magazine, 1947

“The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans.” (Average price at the time: $28,000)
– Business Week, 1969

“The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.”
– Money Magazine, 1981

“If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.”
– Miami Herald, 1985

“Most economists agree...a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly mot the lucrative investment it was....”
– Money Magazine, 1986

“We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money-making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.”
– Los Angeles Times, 1993 (Note: 1993 was the absolute low-point for real estate values in Los Angeles. Priced have sky-rocketed since.)

“Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.”
– Kiplinger’s Personal Financial Magazine, 1993

“A home is where the bad investment is.”
– San Francisco Examiner. 1996

I personally love the "Financial planners agree..." comment... Financial planners have a stake in your investing in stocks where they make a commission. The same jab we Realtors get. Sure there has been irrational exuberance in both, and it's smarter to buy at the bottom then at the top. But NOW that there are many more naysayers, that's is the bottom... the time to buy... simply because the "experts" are telling you not to. Just about all of the above headlines were published during downturns in the market... only to be followed by significantly improved markets.


Home prices up 6% year to date in San Francisco

Dataquest's October numbers are out... San Francisco's total homes sold did decrease by 8.2% but that is far less of a decrease than the 35.7% for the entire Bay Area. In addition prices have gone up by 3.9% over the same month in 2006.

For year to date figures, notice below that since Q1 prices are up 6%. That's extremely solid growth in what the media continues to call are terrible market.

On the other hand, even city-only numbers are far too broad to determine how your home has done in this market. Some segments of the market are very hot, like the $2 to $4 million range in neighborhoods like Pacific Heights and Cow Hollow. The higher end market may in fact be lifting overall figures because many homes priced under $1 million in some other neighborhoods are virtually not selling at all at any price. So take the following numbers, as with any generalized number, with a grain of salt, and feel free to email me for a free "CMA" or Comparative Market Analysis for your home.

Here are this year's stats per DataQuest:

Jan '07 - Median Price $750,000 - up 0.7% over Jan '06
Feb '07 - Median Price $757,500 - up 2.4% over Feb '06
Mar '07 - Median Price $753,000 - down 2.1% over Mar '06
Apr '07 - Median Price $790,000 - up 1.4% over Apr '06
May '07 - Median Price $835,000 - up 8.4% over May '06
June '07 - Median Price $825,000 - up 4.4% over June '06
July '07 - Median Price $799,000 - up 3.1% over July '06
Aug '07 - Median Price $822,000 - up 7.8% over Aug '06
Sept '07 - Median Price $773,500 - up 1.9% over Sept '06
Oct '07 - Median Price $795,000 - up 3.9% over Oct '06

So prices remain strong in San Francisco overall. On the other hand, a similar look at other counties will show that Solano, Sonoma, Napa, and Contra Costa counties are struggling mightily.