333 Main - Infinity 3BR rental

3 bedroom Craigslist rental at 333 Main St, San Francisco - Infinity "tree top".

Asking price on Craigslist is $5,400. I like to beat up the Infinity for over-priced hype - the "new car" theory of having it depreciate the moment you get the keys. But if the numbers are to be believed here... per tax records the four 3BR condos on the 8th floor all sold for roughly $1.1 million.

Per the NYTimes Rent vs Buy calculator it's a smarter decision to buy this unit for $1.1 million than it is to rent it for $5,000 after just 4 years. I recommend at least a 5 year hold plan to all my clients.

Even if you can get the rent down to $4,000 it's smarter to buy within 16 years. What I like most about this investment is that 3 bedrooms are probably the easiest to rent as they are the rarest of units in the majority of the City.

Of course you can play with the rent vs. buy assumptions to draw your own conclusions. At a 5% 30 year fixed it's 4 years, at 6% it's 8 years before it's smarter to buy, at 7% it's 16 years.

Dear Tishman/Infinity - PLEASE take my name off your list

Oh wait, I didn't sell one unit at The Infinity, so my name isn't on this list. Phew!


San Francisco's Infinity - two high rise condo towers and a "tree top" building - are now reporting over 600 sold condos at 301 Main St (365 units), 333 Main St (66 units), 338 Spear St (285 units), a total of 716 units.... so at least 84% sold out.

Unfortunately 715 of the 716 appear to be under water already. The one that isn't under water is 301 Main St #9E because it's been re-sold as a Short Sale.... from $867,000 to $607,000 or a 30% drop in 18 months.

So WHY on earth did anyone buy at the Infinity when they saw this exact thing happen at the Beacon, The Palms, The Watermark and on and on?

Apparently when I wrote 1 year ago about my "new car theory", this past year everyone thought that some how the Infinity would be different. Unfortunately, as soon as you drive ANY new car off the lot it depreciates in value. Tomorrow, the Infinity will be a used car. So why not wait and buy a re-sale?

Speaking of resales, here is 1 in each of the 3 Infinity buildings:

301 Main St #19A - resale at $835k in Oct '09 - meanwhile per the SFGov property tax site the tax basis is $897,531 which is what I think it must have sold for 9 months earlier in Jan '09. That's a 7% drop AFTER the market had already crashed in late 2008.

333 Main #7B - resale in Nov '09 at $760,000 - original sale based on tax records appears to be $819,000 back in March '08. If that's the case I think the seller got lucky, and the buyer bought too "new" of a car, er, condo.

338 Spear St #5D - resale Dec '09 at $815,000 - original sale April '09 was $795,000. Good news right? Up $20,000... but the original buyer probably spent close to $50,000 to sell it, and not including their original closing costs realized a $30,000 loss, NOT a $20k gain. Plus add 8 months of $754 HOA dues and property taxes and my guess is that it probably cost the original buyer close to $10,000 per month to live in their "new car" condo.

Meanwhile, 301 Main #9E and it's 30% drop Short Sale in Dec '09 is more like it. A 30% drop is about what I expect for all Infinity units, including the above re-sales, if they try to re-sell again anytime in the next couple of years. Too bad they didn't buy then... when I hope to have my name WAY UP that list.

If you need to Short Sell your condo - please use the Short Sale Request Form for a free evaluation of your situation and likely success of Short Selling.

Infinity on the move - literally

The Infinity SF sent out a press release (here) about the "new" 2nd tower welcoming it's new residents. Apparently as many as 75 of them after "averaging 6 sales a week".

The verbiage is a tad unclear as it says 322 homes have sold in the 365-unit first phase "and more than 75 new homes sold at The Infinity in the past 90 days". Well, both phase 1 & 2 are called The Infinity, so are some on phase 1 with most in phase 2????

By the way, apparently "Blu" at 631 Folsom is now 20% sold out, nearly at their 25% goal for loan approval, and they are "set for May move ins" - all according to the sales agent I spoke to today.

Infinity SF & Blu SF updates

Tower one or phase one of the Infinity, 318 Spear St San Francisco, still isn't sold out. Tower two or phase two of the Infinity, 338 Spear St, which many claim is the superior tower since it's closer to the water and has more unobstructed view homes... and is rumored to have better finishes... isn't yet complete, nor is it for sale as of today. Speculation at sites like Socketsite, a San Francisco real estate blog with active commenters, has been that the Infinity's tower two would begin selling soon after the first of the year.


Well, per the Sales office, you can now see tower two via private appointment, but with scarce appointments available. But in early February they will be ready for drop-in appointments. As always start at the Sales office, and it's still best to book an appointment. In addition, Sales will commence around the time that drop-in appointments begin. HOWEVER, tower two is still not ready for occupancy and may not be until June or so.

The prices quoted at Tower one are still amazingly high. One of the only (or was it the only???) 1 bedrooms remaining that has water views is asking $895,000 for just over 800 SqFt. At over $1,000 per SqFt it amazes me that anyone would pay that (well, they haven't since this particular one is still for sale - and they proactively tell you that they will entertain lower offers), but with the credit freeze, stock market drop, and over-supply of homes in and around SOMA/South Beach including their own Tower two... it seems to me a 1 bedroom condo ought to be asking $700,000, not $895,000.

Regarding Blu, or 631 Folsom St San Francisco, they will begin showing finished models next week, and occupancy will begin at the end of March or beginning of April. Thus far only 10% of Blu is in contract whereas Infinity tower one claims to only have about 10% remaining... but of course 0% sold in tower two.

Of the three hottest new buildings in the area... the ultra luxury Millennium SF at 301 Mission is the most expensive (despite an announced 15% drop in prices), Infinity is a pretty luxurious building, at least in terms of amenities, and is cheaper, but is more expensive than Blu. But in addition to amenities, Blu has few private patio/balconies (only 2nd floor and penthouse) whereas Infinity has the most.

It will be a very interesting year in real estate throughout San Francisco, but the SOMA/South Beach/Mission Bay market, and in particular these three developments all opening this Spring, will be very interesting to watch.

If you would like to be updated on all MLS activity at these three buildings you can enter your specific search at Automated-HomeFinder.com, or try out SF-MLS-Search.com or register at CleanOffer.com or email me at info @ SFisHOME.com for direct service.