Andy Sirkin on TIC's

Andy Sirkin, the well known San Francisco TIC attorney spoke at our Pacific Union office meeting this morning. One thing I've been curious about is his estimate on how long it would take for new TIC buildings of 3 to 6 units to win the lottery and complete conversion if you started today. "20 years" was his guess. In other words, if you're buying into a newly formed TIC - plan on selling it as a TIC.

Among the MANY other tidbits of info I gleamed from a very informative hour are:
- Sterling Bank is pretty much the only fractional lender left - other than when Builders have gotten previous commitments from other fractional lenders.
- the 2010 condo conversion lottery will happen in the next couple of weeks. Those who have been in for 7 years are in "Pool A" and he thinks they have a 90% chance of winning the right to convert. Those in "Pool B" may have a 1% to 2% chance of winning because there are so many tickets in that pool.
- almost all of the news for TIC's was bad - except for 2-unit buildings who qualify for lottery bypass - if you can bypass the lottery (and there are 2-unit buildings that can't due to eviction history or only one owner-occupier) the good news is that processing times are much faster - technically a 2-unit might be able to complete a conversion in as little as 15 months due to processing of as little as 3 months.

$599,000 in San Rafael vs. San Francisco

My business partner Ciara Piron has a listing in San Rafael - only $599,000 for 3 bedrooms, lots of outdoor space, views, etc.


For $575,000O in San Francisco's Pacific Heights - you could buy a one bedroom at 1701 Jackson.


Or buy this 3bed 3bath 3Car on 1.38 acres in Bend Oregon

Fixer in the Marina District

1624 Bay St in the Marina District has been an eyesore for several years. Per San Francisco's permit site there were complaints about construction going back to 2005 or about the time I moved into the neighborhood. Wow, 5 years, far longer than I thought. Maybe, finally, they'll fix it.

Tracking San Francisco foreclosures (REO's)

San Francisco foreclosure update - Banked Owned properties on the SFAR MLS:

In wondering if REO's are up, down or flat in the City the most interesting finding is just how down total homes for sale are - not much pickings out there for Buyers.

Today's Jan 19th 2010 update:
Homes = 38 REO's of 368 total listed single family homes for-sale. So 10.3% of all current listings are REO's.
Condos = 19 REO's out of 422 condos listed for sale or 4.5%

Here's the chart with previous reports below it:




The last REO update on Nov 25, 2009:
Homes = 37 REO's of 484 total listed for-sale or 7.6%
Condos = 15 REO's of 606 condos or 2.5%

Homes = 31 REO's of 578 total listed for-sale or 5.4%
Condos = 29 REO's of 668 condos or 4.3%

On July 18th 2009 San Francisco MLS listed foreclosures were:

Homes = 31 REO's of 578 total listed for-sale or 5.4%
Condos = 29 REO's of 668 condos (not including TIC's etc this time) or 4.3%


My February 2009 update included TIC's and lofts
Homes = 44 REO's of 570 total homes listed for-sale or 7.7%
Condos = 23 REO's of 949 condos/lofts/TIC's/coops (condo only number is a better metric - and I estimate at least 220 were TIC's of the total) so 5.2% of San Francisco condos were REO's

More Short Sales problems

Short Sales are known to be long and difficult. And when there are 2 lenders short sales can be impossible. Now, according to this video report on CNBC there's a new problem. Some 2nd lien holders are demanding bribes to approve the short sale. The fraud in this country never ceases to amaze me.


By the way, this video ends with a conversation about loan modification problems.

Craigslist Apartments via Map

Using a Map UI to find apartments on Craigslist in San Francisco and everywhere else Craiglist is used.
First there was SFRentStats at http://mullinslab2.ucsf.edu/SFrentstats/ but it is only in San Francisco. Now there's PadMapper.com. It's got an "embed" feature so I'm embeded the San Francisco search below. Have at it:


View Larger Map

"Green" moving boxes

"Green" moving boxes - moving in San Francisco? Make it green.

Interesting concept from a new San Francisco based company called Zippgo. Use re-usable plastic boxes for your move, therefore keeping from using one-time cardboard boxes.

I have some questions on how "green" this concept really is including:
1. are the boxes themselves made from recycled plastic - I'd hate to see them eventually go into landfill - and while they say they can be used 400 times vs. cardboard's once or twice - which is better if it isn't recycled plastic? (update: "the boxes are made from 100% recycled plastic" per the owner)

2. these boxes must be cleaned between uses. What is the environmental impact of cleaning them 400 times before they can't be used any more vs. discarding cardboard boxes? Fact - taking your car to a car wash is much more environmentally friendly then washing your own car. Why? They re-use their water and are economical in how much water and soap they use per car vs. an individual. So, how much water/soap for "green" boxes vs. impact of discarding cardboard?

3. they drop off and pick up - that's gas and emissions from a truck. I'll probably assume this is a non- issue since you would need to pick up cardboard boxes too, and then they get picked up and sent to landfill. (update - "we deliver the boxes using trucks powered by biodiesel made from waste vegetable oil" per owner)

I like the concept - but what's the true environmental impact?
(update - so far so good on the answers to our questions)

The Listings are coming the Listings are coming

Notice in this chart the uptick in new Condo listings in San Francisco's "District 7" (Marina, Cow Hollow, Pacific Heights & Presidio Heights) in February 2008 and February 2009.

Feb '09 was also artificially low with all that was going on in the economy and stock market at that time. So my guess is that Feb 2010 will be closer to '08 than '09. So if you've been house hunting in San Francisco, and think the homes for sale inventory has been disappointing, fasten your seat belt. Post Super Bowl (let's go Jets :) expect a flood of new listings.

Bank's BPO price vs. market price

The Beacon at 250 King and 260 King San Francisco has fallen on hard times with a growing number of Short Sales and REO's. Unfortunately many Short Sales are still not going through, and when they don't they usually become REO listings a few months later. One reason - unrealistic Banks.

250 King St Unit #636 appears to be one of those listings. The former Short Sale listing said "Lender has BPO of $565,000 and will not pay for back HOA dues."

Originally listed in April 2008 for $599,000 there were no takers for 3 months. 6 months later the same Listing firm re-listed it in January 2009, but this time as a Short Sale asking $525,000. It bounced around in price and in and out of contract over the next 6+ months it finally was removed from the MLS in August at $498,000.

A "BPO" is a Broker's Price Opinion. Usually banks get more than one opinion, and often they are not local agents. Regardless, the $565,000 BPO and the failure to sell at $498,000 isn't even the most shocking part of the story. It's that when it was re-listed as an REO in November at $413,325 it has now gone through TWO PRICE drops to $392,660 after 28 days, and now down to $373,027 just a couple of days ago.

More history - per tax records #636 was purchased for $575,000 in March 2006 representing a 35% drop in value at it's current asking price. The buyer appears to have put 10% down based on two loans adding up to $517,500.

Click here to view 250 King St Unit #636.

For Rent in the Marina

For Rent in San Francisco's Marina District.
13 total for-rent apartments within 3 blocks of each other.

4 photos of 3 rental signs on the same block as 1456 Chestnut:


In addition to the 3 above, I found what appears to be 9 more in the video below. 13 in total within 3 blocks of each other. A sign (no pun intended) of things to come? Or a coincidence?

1456 Chestnut photo update

1456 Chestnut St, San Francisco photo update.
I got out of my car and took a closer look at the building and snapped this photo of the front steps. While I still haven't been inside, this apparent foundation damage may partly explain the $709,000 price tag.
 

Cheapest Single Family home in the Marina since 2002

1456 Chestnut Street in San Francisco's Marina District just came on the market at only $709,000. Tax records seem to say it's zoned RH-3 (Residential, House, 3 dwellings) and even if not, just based on the building heights of its two neighbors it certainly looks like it could be a fix and flip similar to 3041 Laguna (see below).



The last time a Single Family Home with at least 2 bedrooms (yes, there are 1 bedroom homes in San Francisco) sold that low or lower was 1999 according to the San Francisco MLS. In 2002 one sold in nearby Cow Hollow for $749,000. Otherwise, the homes on Laguna Street in Cow Hollow (click here for 3020 Laguna video & post) have been the cheapest of late in the low and mid $900's. It's only day #1 on the MLS, and it's got a listed offer date of January 15th. If you're not working with a Realtor and are interested in this home, you can reach us at www.SFisHOME.com

UPDATE: 3020 Laguna is now on the SFAR MLS asking $950,000.

Cow Hollow Single Family home for $950,000

Well I wrote on December 16th that 3020 Laguna Street was "coming soon" - see video report below. I called the Listing Agent today for an update and he says it was submitted to the San Francisco MLS manually since he is not a member of the San Francisco Association of Realtors. That manual submission he figured would take a day, and it was submitted Monday. It's still not on the MLS as of 6pm today January 6th.

If you'd like to be informed immediately when the home comes onto the market be sure to create an account at www.SF-MLS-Search.com

Or check back regularly for all For-Sale properties in Cow Hollow at Cow Hollow Homes for sale.

Banked Owned at the Watermark in San Francisco

A Banked Owned REO at The Watermark, 501 Beale St, San Francisco, just had another price drop. It didn't sell at $495,000, or at $470,250 so now it is $446,738. The news here is that according to tax records it sold for $725,000 in January 2007. That's roughly a 40% drop in just 3 years. What's more, per the tax records the owner did a cash-out refinance just 6 months after buying getting a $780,000 loan. So an appraiser valued it at least at $780,000.

Tough times at the Watermark.

For all For-Sale listings at the Watermark click here 501 Beale St Listings

Or search all San Francisco listings at www.SF-MLS-Search.com